Renewable Energy Installer November 2015 | Seite 12

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Will heat pump numbers meet 2030
predictions?
Heat pump specialist Bob Long examines the likelihood of reaching the
milestone target of nearly seven million heat pumps in the UK by 2030
When the solar industry received a kick-
start by way of the Feed-in Tariff, the
prospect of profiting from renewable
technology captured widespread attention.
Market response to the high value subsidy
was vibrant and rapid growth occurred.
Seeing the dynamic success of many
companies in the solar market, many of us
hoped the heat pump market would have
been a similar success. It is difficult to
understand why the heat pump industry did
not receive sufficient support to create a
similar result.
Unlike wind turbines or PV, the heat
pump is one of the few predictable sources
of renewable energy, and therefore should
be valued on a much higher level than other
unpredictable and intermittent renewable
sources.
In 2012, I placed a lot of faith in the
content of two reports that I came across.
One was compiled by Acuity Consulting, a
copy of which can easily be found online
by searching the phrase ‘6.8 million heat
pumps by 2030’. Another forecast published
by the National Grid appeared online at
the same time telling a similar story, and
quoting a similar number of heat pumps to
be installed by 2030.
It all makes interesting reading, but it
12 | www.renewableenergyinstaller.co.uk
also seems clear that we are currently not
reaching the anticipated figures, by a long
way. In last month’s issue we looked at
reasons for slow growth of the heat pump
market and concluded that low SPFs and
low RHI payments are the main obstacles –
or are they?
If we believe the 6.8 million heat
pump forecast from two credible sources,
installations would need to total no less
than 450,000 units per year to hit the target
by 2030.
The enormity of the numbers raises yet
another concern, and possibly the single
most tangible reason for holding back the
growth rate of our industry. Can we actually
generate enough power here in the UK to
support these numbers?
To give this issue some perspective,
assume a heat pump of 12kW thermal
output, apply a performance factor of 3:1
and assume the input energy would be close
to 4kW. This figure, multiplied by the total
number of heat pumps accruing at 450,000
per year, equals the extra energy required.
Although this collective total load
is based upon all heat pump units
running simultaneously, the probability
is extremely high. Similarities in weather
patterns across national regions will
increase the coincidence of units running
simultaneously. The total energy required to
power 450,000 heat pumps would be 1.8GW.
Electrical demand, increasing by 1.8GW
each year for the next 15 years, will total
27GW by 2030.
This would mean increasing our current
energy production capacity by at least
27GW, before 2030 arrives. Our current
average energy usage for UK varies around
35/45GW, and peaks occasionally at around
50GW. The anticipated number of heat
pumps will almost double the amount of
electrical energy used in the UK today.
So, if the RHI payment could be
increased in value, will our electrical grid
be able to keep up with the higher demand
from more installations?
The low level of support has
disappointed many, particularly when heat
pump technology has a unique place within
the scope of renewables.
Common sense would suggest there
should be greater rewards for predictable
energy than unpredictable.
In the low carbon world we want
to create, the heat pump is the only
economical electrically powered heating
system, and must eventually become the
preferred option. The question is when?