• Three-year forecast (‘15-’17) for 27 economic and real estate indicators
• A consensus forecast based on the median of the forecasts from 46
economists/analysts at 33 leading real estate organizations
• Respondents represent major real estate investment, advisory, and
research firms and organizations
• Survey undertaken from February 27- March 23 2015
• A semiannual survey; next release planned for October 2015
• Forecasts for:
– Broad economic indicators
– Real estate capital markets
– Property investment returns for four property types
– Vacancy rates and rents for five property types
– Housing starts and prices
The economists/analysts expect continued economic expansion at healthy and fairly steady levels in the next three years.
• GDP growth is expected to be healthy at a steady rate of 3.0% in both 2015 and
2016, with just a slightly lower rate of 2.8% 2017; these are all the highest annual
growth rates in nine years.
• The unemployment rate is expected to decline a bit further to 5.3% by the end of
2015, 5.0% by the end of 2016, and remain at 5% at the end of 2017.
• Employment growth in 2015 and 2016 is expected to continue at about the same
level as in 2014 with 3.12 million jobs in 2015 and 3.00 million in 2016. Employment growth is expected to continue at a somewhat slower but still strong pace of 2.50 million in 2017.
• Compared to forecasts of 6 month’s ago, employment forecasts for ‘15 and ‘16 are somewhat more optimistic and GDP forecasts have remained the same.
Real Estate Consensus Forecast