REIT ASIAPAC MAGAZINE REITASIAPAC 4Q 2018 ISSUE | Page 22

REIT ASIAPAC L E G I S L AT I O N Legislation LIPPO GROUP’S BRIBERY PROBE AND LIQUIDITY RISKS PUT INVESTORS ON EDGE Proceeds from Lippo Karawaci’s asset sales said to only provide temporary relief “We estimate that the added liquidity will only be sufficient to cover the company’s cash needs until September 2019 given the company’s cash burn rate of around IDR1.1 trillion in 2018 and around IDR1.3 trillion in 2019, and upcoming debt maturities of IDR1.3 trillion in the rest of 2018 and 2019.” negative outlook, from B2. It has also cut the rating of retailer PT Matahari Putra Prima, an affiliate of Lippo Group and a tenant of LMIRT, to B3 from B2. is the executive chairman and major shareholder of OUE Limited. OUE Lippo Healthcare Limited is a subsidiary of OUE Limited. Concerning its tenant base, LMIRT specified that its income derived from Lippo Karawaci master leases accounted for 10% of its 2018 gross revenue. The rest of the related party tenants accounted for around 17% of LMIRT’s gross revenue and comprised independent retail focused entities such as Matahari Departmental Store, Hypermart and Timezone. OUE Lippo Healthcare has said that the acquisitions are aligned with its strategy to expand into the Pan-Asian Healthcare market. However, some investors and observers regard the purchases as a plan to support the finances of Lippo Karawaci. “These sales only provide Lippo Karawaci a short-term liquidity boost and do not address the fundamental weakness in its property development business,” says Poh. First REIT is relatively more secure compared with LMIRT, according to Poh. “Under its master lease with Lippo Karawaci, the rental expense has priority over interest and debt, so there is little rental default risk over the next 12 months.” CORRUPTION PROBE The recent bribery probe by the Indonesian anti-graft agency into Lippo Group Deputy Chairman James Riady involving a $21 billion Meikarta's construction project, touted as the “Shenzhen of Indonesia,” has shaken investor confidence about the performance of the group’s related companies. Notably, risk is seen in Singapore-listed Lippo Malls Indonesia Retail Trust (LMIRT) and First REIT because their sponsor – Indonesian-listed PT Lippo Karawaci, which owned companies in charge of Meikarta’s development, had also been downgraded several times by credit rating agencies as a result of stretched liquidity. “The weakening liquidity of Lippo Karawaci does impact the two REITs (LMIRT and First REIT),” Jacintha Poh, a Vice President and Senior Analyst at Moody’s, told REIT AsiaPac. “LMIRT has a part of its tenant base affiliated with Lippo Group, so there is some risk of tenant defaults or move outs.” Moody’s has downgraded Lippo Karawaci’s credit rating to B3 with a 22 In October, James Riady’s home was searched by Indonesian anti-graft officials. Separately, Lippo Karawaci announced the sale of its 100%-stake in Bowsprit Capital Corporation, which in turn is the manager of First REIT and owns 7% of its units, to OUE Limited and OUE Lippo Healthcare Limited for S$99 million. The company also sold an additional 10.6%-stake in First REIT to an indirect wholly-owned subsidiary of OUE Lippo Healthcare Limited for S$103 million. Stephen Riady, James Riady’s brother, Lippo Karawaci is Lippo Group’s real estate development arm. It is a holding company that owns assets to develop, manage and sell, and some of these assets have been sold to Lippo’s group of REITs. However, Lippo Karawaci borrowed in USD to support the growth of its subsidiaries, and these subsidiaries did not guarantee the debt nor pay out sufficient dividends to cover the interest expense, explains Poh. “Lippo Karawaci’s problem was less about currency risk arising from borrowing in USD and more about being financially stretched because of its high gearing,” she says. “We estimate that the added liquidity will only be sufficient to cover the company’s cash needs until September 2019 given the company’s cash burn rate of around IDR1.1 trillion in 2018 and around IDR1.3 trillion in 2019, and upcoming debt maturities of IDR1.3 trillion in the rest of 2018 and 2019.” 23 THE DOWNTURN IN INDONESIA’S HOME SALES The Indonesia residential slump in 2016 brought the issue to the fore as Lippo Karawaci decided to suspend new residential launches in the weak market, she told REIT AsiaPac. “This made creditors nervous as they couldn't see a revenue pipeline to cover interest expense which was running at about US$120 million per year.” The weak investor sentiment has spread from the Lippo Group to entities affiliated with OUE Limited, such as OUE Commercial REIT and OUE Hospitality Trust. Prices of units in the OUE REITs plunged in the last quarter of 2018. Lippo Centre, Hong Kong