REIT ASIAPAC MAGAZINE REITASIAPAC 4Q 2018 ISSUE | Page 20

REIT ASIAPAC J-REITS 2018 SECONDARY OFFERINGS (JPY) NAME DATE ANNOUNCED CLOSING PRICE ON DEAL ANNOUNCEMENT DATE PRICING DATE CLOSING PRICE ON PRICING DATE % CHANGE FROM DEAL ANNOUNCED TO PRICING DATE TSEREIT PERFORMANCE PERFORMANCE RELATIVE TO TSEREIT INDEX DEAL PRICE DEAL DISCOUNT ACTIVIA PROPERTIES 30-Nov-18 477,000 12-Dec-18 454,500 -4.72% -1.09% -3.63% 445,410 -2.00% HANKYU HANSHIN REIT 8-Nov-18 143,600 19-Nov-18 143,900 0.21% 0.91% -0.70% 137,377 -4.53% MIRAI CORP 16-Oct-18 189,800 24-Oct-18 183,500 -3.32% -0.18% -3.14% 173,452 -5.48% HULIC REIT 12-Oct-18 162,500 24-Oct-18 158,500 -2.46% 0.35% -2.81% 154,537 -2.50% ONE REIT 4-Sep-18 246,200 12-Sep-18 233,500 -5.16% 0.17% -5.33% 227,662 -2.50% Average Drop in Price from Deal announced -3.09% Average excluding Hankyu Hanshin -3.91% Average underperformance Vs TSEREIT Average underperformance Vs TSEREIT excl Hankyu Hanshin -3.21% -3.73% Source: Bloomberg, B&I Capital (as of 31 December 2018) PROTECTION OF INVESTORS IN OTHER MARKETS OVERNIGHT PLACEMENT WOULD LIMIT LOSS What is different about Japan? For small capital raises, Singapore REITs and Australian REITs generally do accelerated bookbuilds, which involve offering shares in a short period, with little to no marketing. They are not required to wait for the offer to be close to ex-date as they can prorate dividends or issue different units that merge into existing units after ex-dates. Currently, only Nippon Prologis takes a flexible approach, but they use retained capital from depreciation to offset the dilution. Domestic institutional investors are typically the smallest part of the book, and they generally come in once the books are strongly covered; usually on the last day. A better approach would be to have an institutional offering for both foreign and domestic investors as an overnight placement. The issuer could retain a portion for existing retail investors and get sub-underwriting from other institutions or investment banks to cover the portion if retail investors decide not to take up their entitlement (units at a 2.5% discount). Often there is a preferential allocation so that existing institutional investors can participate along with an additional bookbuild. In Australia, there is even a retail offering that follows at a later stage via the custodians so that retail investors can subscribe to new units at the same price. To eliminate risk of a short fall, investment banks or institutions could underwrite the retail portion to reduce the risk to the issuer given most deals are multiple times oversubscribed in Japan. This would limit the loss in unit price on secondary offerings and would also limit the selling pressure from retail investors who are often participating in transactions to make a quick gain due to the discount. Retail investors’ portions of secondary offerings and IPOs are disproportionately large. Take the current offering, Mitsui Fudosan Logistics Park. The retail tranche was roughly 50% (scaled back from 56% due to large international institutional demand) of the transaction while retail investors make up only 9% of the current shareholder base. The deal was announced on 9 January and closed on 22 January. The units will become available to retail investors on 4 February, and we expect to see a large volume as they cash out from the offering. The approach in other REIT markets gives those managements the ability to raise equity flexibly and also to do transactions without the need of warehousing from a sponsor. Technicalities aside, the argument that has been given for why the offering period needs to be extended is that domestic retail and institutional investors need time to analyse the transaction to make a decision. The stock exchange, issuers, and the industry should consider the current practice and look to reform to limit unit price erosion that results from secondary offerings. Such practice only benefits new unitholders at the expense of existing unitholders and changes some of the metrics of the transaction. We are very sceptical on this point. Retail investors, the bulk of all secondary offerings, are generally net sellers of J-REITs precisely because of secondary offerings. They participate in the offering, and on the day of delivery, there is a massive volume flow as they move out of the deal and on to the next one. The stock market statistics support this view as it reflects the sales of secondary transactions and not the purchases. 20 21