REIT ASIAPAC MAGAZINE REITASIAPAC 3Q 2018 ISSUE | 页面 14

REIT ASIAPAC L E G I S L AT I O N (both primary and secondary), and continued elevated vacancy rates in both markets. The acquisition growth story has lost its lustre, and this has led to investors searching for internal growth rather than equity-led acquisition growth. However, one could start to make a case for this sector due to its defensive nature and long term potential on the back of increasing demand for modern logistics facilities from third-party logistics, manufacturing and other e-commerce businesses. Supply will peak in the coming year, and given the high cost of land and construction, this should help to bring the supply and demand of the sector back into balance. For value investors with a longer time horizon, the sector has started to look attractive. arrivals to Japan are repeat visitors, and they are seeking new experiences in Japan and visiting areas that they have yet to visit before. Their focus is more on experience and less on purchasing of consumables. REITs with exposure outside of Tokyo, Osaka and Kyoto where most of the new development has been occurring are seeing decent RevPAR growth due to this new trend from repeat visitors and limited new supply of hotels in those locations. We think there will continue to be pressure on certain J-REITs with predominately Tokyo, Osaka and Kyoto based hotels despite the strong arrival growth and prefer the regional plays that also typically have strong domestic visitor demand as well. Legislation ASIA’S INVESTMENT RESEARCH DEPARTMENTS SHRINK 70% ON MIFID II Asset management firms have cut down on brokerage services and are organising client meetings and roadshows using in-house investor relations teams. Retail J-REITs have like REITs elsewhere struggled due to concern about the viability of large format department stores and concern about closures. The J-REITs with suburban malls have been particularly impacted by this concern, and we also feel that the risk/reward in suburban malls is not attractive. On the other hand, urban retail located next to train stations and on high streets like Tokyo’s Omotesando and Ginza or Osaka’s Shinsaibashi are performing well. Like hotels, they have benefited over the last year due to inbound tourism, and this has helped landlords achieve strong rental increase on renewals or on turnover rents. We also like neighbourhood shopping centres that tend to cater to daily necessities like grocery, services and other products that are not disrupted by e-commerce players. The yields on these assets are typically very high, and there is often some re-development or expansion potential. In addition, these types of centres could form part of the last mile for e-commerce deliveries and even provide some logistic support to retail operators. We continue to prefer J-REITs over other markets due to strong leasing conditions especially in office and regional office and see limited risk of higher interest rates or refinancing risk due to the lenient stance of the Bank of Japan on the sector. RESIDENTIAL REITS HAD ITS RUN Residential REITs have performed reasonably well over the last year. Those with Tokyo concentration have seen strong uplift on tenant replacements and renewals. Cities like Nagoya and Osaka are not seeing the same increase due to the conversion of some small office buildings into multifamily apartments or hotels. The sector offers defensive growth, but asset prices have increased significantly so we are less positive despite the improving fundamentals because actual internal growth is typically much less than the office or urban retail markets. M&A (mergers and acquisitions) will continue to be an interesting angle though, and we would not be surprised to see more combinations as we have seen over the past decade, which will lead to larger, more liquid trusts and some scale benefits. It is also likely that some other asset types like senior housing or student accommodation will find their way into residential REIT portfolios, which could offer some exciting opportunities. REGIONAL HOTELS TO BENEFIT F R O M R E P E AT V I S I TO R S Lastly, the hotel sector offers promise going into the Tokyo Olympics. A recent change in the Minpaku law (private residence rental) that negatively impact home-sharing platforms like Airbnb, has led to a recovery in overnight hotel stays by foreign visitors. Before the change, there was a discrepancy between inbound arrivals and overnight stays. It is well known that inbound numbers continue to rise and are likely to exceed the government’s upwardly revised target of 40 million visitors. However, due to the strong growth in arrivals, there has also been an increase in limited service hotels that cater to tourists. As mentioned above, in many cases office buildings are being converted into hotels due to the higher expected returns, and this has led to a stagnation in RevPAR growth. Overall, we continue to prefer J-REITs over other markets due to strong leasing conditions especially in office and regional office and see limited risk of higher interest rates or refinancing risk due to the lenient stance of the Bank of Japan towards the sector. Japan’s economy continues to perform well, and we believe this will provide a tailwind to the sector even if interest rates start to edge up. However, there are some bright spots. Roughly half of the 14 Asia Pacific has seen a fall in investment research headcount, and the region’s REITs have reported reduced investor meetings since the revised Markets in Financial Instruments Directive, also known as MiFID II, came into effect on January 3 this year. According to sources close to REIT AsiaPac, investment research departments in Asia have shrunk by as much as 70% as the industry adjusts to research that is now separately chargeable. Departures include high-profile executives from Macquarie and UBS. REITs in Asia are also facing increased difficulty in securing investor meetings. “We have to be more proactive and think away from conventional channels to generate awareness and in reaching out to investors. For existing investors, we can easily arrange calls or meetings. The greater challenge is accessing new investors on our own,” says Ho Mei Peng, head of investor relations at CapitaLand Commercial Trust. “Pre-MIFID II, many of these connections were through analysts and their corporate access teams,” she says, adding that the company has seen an increase in the number of direct meetings and query requests from investors, both local and overseas. We have to be more proactive and think away from conventional channels to generate awareness and in reaching out to investors. Ho Mei Peng Head of Investor Relations at CapitaLand Commercial Trust. MiFID II is the updated version of MiFID which had been in place in the European Union since November 2007. The updated ruling covers wide-ranging areas including market transparency, product governance, transaction reporting, investor protection and new rules on inducements such as commissions and rebates for independent advisors. 15 Specifically, the new ruling requires banks to charge for research separately from broking services to improve transparency. Previously, brokers might bundle research with the fee they charged for executing trades. Another aspect of MiFID II is that it puts a price on the brokers’ role in facilitating discussions and meetings between fund managers and the companies in which they invest — known as corporate access. In short, the revised ruling aims to prevent conflicts of interest and ensure that fund companies aren’t induced to trade. While the updated regulation has sweeping implications, especially for investment banks and brokerage firms, the real estate industry in Asia too has not been spared from the effects. In general, MiFID II