# 4 – SFR ( SingleFamily Residence ) Listings will be low and will stay low . 92 % of homeowners say their home is affordable for them now . Houses are appreciating nicely so far . So , why list , find a new place , move , and pay more ? Some will list due to a job relocation , divorce , inheritance windfall , but not many for a “ move up ”. Homeowners are “ set ” at this time .
# 5 – Buyers ’ Offers will be fewer . With fewer listings , higher prices , and higher rates , the number of buyers will drop off . Prices could decline after a while . Some markets are “ topping out ” already . This is a local phenomenon , so pay attention !
# 6 – Refinances were off 80 % last week . This industry is destined to be hit hard . Loan agents will be leaving . Offices will be consolidating or closing . There ’ s no stopping it .
# 7 – Real Estate Agents will thin out , also . Those with small clientele and / or high overhead ( e . g ., poor commission splits ) will not make it . Some will downsize , prospect more , and further educate themselves . Grow professionally , and “ hustle harder ”.
# 8 – Real Estate Brokerages will also need to retrench . They have been on an
“ agent acquisition binge ” for several years on the belief that more agents = more deals = more income . This has been true , but going forward many agents will add to costs , but not to revenues . Cull the flock . Get lean for the uncertain future .
# 9 – “ Flippers ” are dropping out and becoming fewer . Material costs are rising . There are supply shortages . Loans are more costly . Deepdiscount acquisitions are scarce . Buyers are fewer and reluctant . I heard a speaker say 80 % of “ flippers ” do one deal , then quit .
# 10 – Syndicators will need to throttle back , also . Especially apartments , mini storage , industrial warehousing , and student housing , have been on a tear nationally this market cycle . “ Gurus ” have been teaching , and novices have been jumping in . The party is becoming more subdued . Lenders are raising rates and qualifying criteria . Investors are pulling in their horns . Opportunities are fewer and weaker .
# 11 – Ibuyers are companies , usually brokerages , who buy houses from homeowners as a service , refresh the home , then market it . They have abundant “ Wall $ treet money ”, and they aim for a 7 % margin or so . Most are losing money on this business model even in the current rising market . When the market turns , this will no longer be viable for them .
# 12 – Real Estate Technology Startups are a new model funded by venture capital and piloted by technology entrepreneurs . Their model involves combining real estate brokerage , lending , title work , and more , to make the process seamless for the consumer . This has been tried for 70 years already , but these people believe that the injection of technology is the key to it finally working . They have raised money in the $ 300700 million range , so they can hold out a long time when the real estate industry inevitably contracts in the coming years . So , we ’ ll see .
Houses are appreciating nicely so far . So , why list , find a new place , move , and pay more ? Some will list due to a job relocation , divorce , inheritance windfall , but not many for a “ move up ”. Homeowners are “ set ” at this time .
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