Real Estate Investor Magazine South Africa October 2013

ZIMBABWE BY SETI SHUMBA Zimbabwe Post-Election Has the economic meltdown started? U p until the holding of the harmonised elections on 31 July 2013, political parties in Zimbabwe were bitterly arguing about the date of the elections, security sector reforms and voters’ registration. All that came to an abrupt end when the Constitutional Court ruled that elections had to be held by 31 July in line with the new constitution. Investors, business leaders and Zimbabweans living in the diaspora and hoping to return home after the elections followed developments with keen interest and developed their own scenarios on likely comes of the elections. As Election Day loomed, there was still debate as to whether the elections were going to be “free and fair” but there was little doubt that they were at least going to be peaceful. As the initial results started trickling in, it was clear that the outcome was going to be something of a “black swan” that few had anticipated. The emerging trend was a nightmare that the planner always dreads; the worst case scenario materialises and the planner is not sure how to react as the outcome was assigned such a low probability of occurrence as to be negligible. The Zimbabwe Stock Market reopened a day after the elections on 1 August and attained a 54 October 2013 SA Real Estate Investor peak of 233.18, the highest level it had achieved since dollarisation in February 2009. Such was the mood of optimism and positive anticipation that the elections were going to herald the start of a new era of economic growth, prosperity and investment opportunities. Stockbrokers on the Zimbabwe Stock Exchange feared a backlash if the elections results yielded an extreme result in favour of one or other of the two major contesting parties. It appeared that their fears were misplaced as the Industrial Index eked out a 0.13% gain to close at 233.18 on reasonable volume of US$1.4 million but already there were signs of selling pressure, particularly among local investors. It then dawned on investors that ZANU (PF) had won 158 or just over 75% of total parliamentary seats available, a majority which allowed them to change the constitution. At the same, as the pre-election rh ?????????)?????????????????????????????????)??????????????????????????????????????)?????????????????????????]??????????????)??????????????????????????????????????????)????????????????????????????????????=???)????????%?????????%??????????????????)???????????????????????????????????)?????????????????Q??????????????????)???????????????%?????????%????()????????????????????????????????)Q?????????????????????????????????????)?????????????????????????????????????)????????????????????????????????????????(???? ??????????????????????????????)?????????????????????????????????UL??)??????UL????????????????????????????)UL????????UL???????%????????????????)???????UL????????UL????%?????????????)?????????????????????????????????)????????????????????????????????????)??????????????????iM???????????????)?????????????????????? ???????????)???5??????%???????????????????????)??????????????????????????U?????????)????????????????????????????UL?????)???????????????????????????????)??????????????????????????????????)???????????????????????????Q?????????)??????????????????e??????????????)?????????????????????????????????????)??????????????????????????????)???????????????????????????????????????)?????????????????????????????????????)??????????????????????)%?????????????????????????????????)???????????????????????????????()??????????????((0

Real Estate Investor Magazine South Africa October 2013 | Page 56