Real Estate Investor Magazine South Africa November 2018 | Page 39
The Tsunami Phase
Big cities are booming, followed by the outlying areas, and
spreading across the market. Construction projects are
numerous and investors who got in early are enjoying price
growth. At this stage there might also be a mid-cycle dip,
where the market experiences some negativity – making it a
great time to buy before the boom sends prices skyrocketing.
The Boom
This phase is marked with huge media hype and buyers
are snapping up properties without discernment for fear
of missing out. Vendors push up their property prices and
houses are selling for more than their asking price. This is
usually when you see huge construction projects, such as
the Biggest Skyscraper in Africa, underway – banks are
confidently supplying funding for these projects because of
the double-digit pay-offs investors are enjoying. According
to analysts, the last two years of this prosperous final period
of the cycle is the absolute worst time to buy – the so-
called winner’s curse – because properties purchased during
this time then fall beneath the purchase price. During this
phase, it’s best to do nothing unless you can find a real yield
property.
The Crash
create great opportunities for individuals with a good eye.
This is usually the best time to buy – even if your broker
says not to!
The Upturn
New buyers are entering the market because of rock bottom
prices. Prices slowly start growing again, but without real
media attention. Optimism starts to set in and property
goes back on the market. Government stimulus, low interest
rates and positive returns are all sure signs that the upturn is
underway. However, this is a good time to be selective with
your buying, aiming for properties with a great rental income
rather than capital growth. It’s an equal phase, neither a
buyer or a seller’s market.
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AL BES shore
INNOVATION
NATION wn’s Fore
The bubble bursts as property prices escalate to unaffordable
levels and the market crashes. Banks are nervous about
lending, finance becomes tough and depressed properties are
going for a song. Remember that unless you’ve purchased
property during the winner’s curse, the value of your property
will always go up, so make sure that you have enough rental
income to hang on to it when there’s a recession.
Conventional wisdom will tell you that the best time to
buy is always “right now” but it’s important to have a strategy
in place. Build your portfolio during the good times and
reassess before the crash to weed out under-performers,
selling to buy during the opportunity phase. You don’t have
to mark your calendar – but keep your eyes peeled.
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