Real Estate Investor Magazine South Africa May 2018 | Page 58

CURRENCY
CURRENCY
that it never sleeps, and is constantly changing. 
But observe it over a period of time and you will see that it
has cycles and moods. And, too, that there are different degrees
of forces or trends that drive its apparently random activity. 
And so it is with the markets as well – the more we observe
them, the more we see patterns and cycles to these seeming-
ly random fluctuations, and various degrees of trends (actions
and reactions) superimposed on each other.
Market Tide
Respect the Tide,
Ride the Wave,
Watch the Ripples
W
JAMES PAYNTER
Director and Head Analyst at Dynamic Outcomes Inc.
56
MAY/JUNE 2018 SA Real Estate Investor Magazine
e have heard some of these expressions before and,
no doubt, to some degree have experienced them
ourselves in a positive and negative way. Perhaps
the joy of simply being carried by the tide, or the helplessness
of trying to fight it. 
And what about the exhilaration of triumphantly riding a
wave into shore, or the desperation and panic of being uncere-
moniously dumped by one (the proverbial 'wipeout')?
These are valuable lessons to learn in respecting the sea, and
can be just as helpful when we talk about respecting and sur-
viving financial markets. The fact is, the sea and the market
have much in common.
A cursory glance at the sea would not pick up much, except
Of primary importance is the major trend in any market (one
spanning several years), which can be represented by the tides
of the ocean – the underlying trend caused by the major pull-
ing forces of the sun and moon.
Remember how, as a kid, you built that beautiful sand castle
well away from the sea edge, only to see the waves steadily
getting closer and closer? No matter how much you try and
protect your castle, eventually the waves flatten it. And you
need to start all over again – further up the beach!
Yes, the tide – this primary force and cycle of the ocean –
caught us out many times as kids.
And it still catches us out time and time again (when last did
you get your towel soaked by the advancing sea?!) And why? 
Because we tend to look at where the sea is now, and make
our plans around