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Clur Index Q3 2024
The Clur Shopping Centre Index , part of the broader Clur Collective asset management platform , provides key insights into asset health and retail performance , covering more than 4.1 million square meters of prime retail space across South Africa and Namibia . This coverage is set to increase to over 5.4 million square meters soon .
• Gap Between Rental Growth and CPI Narrowing : The gap between South African shopping centre base rental growth and CPI is closing , with rental growth reaching 3.7 % in Q3 2024 .
• Shift in Centre Dynamics : Smaller regional centres outperformed larger super regional centres in rental growth and trading density in Q3 2024 , reversing previous trends .
• Western Cape Leads Performance : Western Cape showed the highest trading density and rental growth in Q3 2024 , outperforming Gauteng and KwaZulu-Natal .
Rental Growth Closes Gap with CPI
As of September 2024 , base rental growth across South African shopping centres has closed the gap with the Consumer Price Index ( CPI ), reaching 3.7 %, just 0.1 % below CPI at 3.8 %. Belinda Clur , managing director of Clur International , comments : “ Rental growth rates have been trailing CPI since July 2020 , particularly impacted by the Covid-19 pandemic . However , Q3 2024 has shown a shift , with rental growth outperforming trading density growth across the board .”
The shift reflects a retreat in domestic inflation and a solidifying rental growth rate consistently above 3 % throughout 2024 . Trading density , however , contracted further by 0.5 % compared to Q2 2024 , and by -1.7 % year-on-year relative to Q4 2023 .
Sector-Specific Performance : Super Regionals vs Small Centres
A key trend in Q3 2024 is the reversal in the performance dynamic between larger and smaller centres . Historically , larger centres such as super regionals outperformed smaller centres , but this has shifted . Smaller regional centres now lead in trading density growth .
32 REI MAGAZINE DECEMBER 2024 / JANUARY 2025