STRUCTURAL DEMAND
Beneath the surface of rate cuts and policy shifts lies a deeper and more durable force: people. In 2024, New Zealand recorded one of the highest net migration gains in its history, contributing to a surge in housing demand that monetary policy cannot ignore.
“ A significant proportion of that growth is concentrated in our major urban centres,” Coulson explains.“ These are the very markets where listings are now increasing, and where quality homes are seeing the most buyer interest.”
At the same time, employment is holding relatively steady, despite bleak projections. The labour market remains tight, and wage growth is outpacing inflation in several key industries. This has underpinned borrowing confidence at present.
“ You’ ve got a growing, working-age population – many of whom are either looking to buy or upgrade – at a time when new housing delivery is slowing. That’ s the kind of imbalance that creates competition,” says Coulson.
Layered on top of this are changing demographics.“ Millennials and Gen Z are entering their prime homebuying years, while Baby Boomers and Gen X are seeking lifestyle shifts, downsizing options, or strategic divestments. This churn at both ends of the market has the potential to create transactional momentum— and opportunity.
“ In short, demand isn’ t just cyclical. It’ s structural, generational, and increasingly global. Sellers who move now are doing so in a market where their product is wanted- and needed.”
PIPELINE PRESSURE
While headlines often fixate on house prices, the real action lies in construction costs – and here, the contrast is stark.
Trade professionals have recently reported that core building materials, including GIB Board, insulation, and cladding, continue to rise in price, driven by inflation and a weaker New Zealand Dollar.
At the same time, key suppliers such as Fletcher Building are warning of further cost escalation as contractors compete for new work amid a slowdown in demand.
Coulson says the practical upshot here is that new builds may become more expensive to deliver, making existing homes an increasingly attractive option for buyers.
“ This can benefit sellers. A home on the market today competes not just with other listings but with a shrinking pool of new-build alternatives that seem burdened with delayed timelines and uncertain costs.
“ There’ s a saying in property,‘ you don’ t wait to buy real estate. You buy real estate and wait.’ The same logic applies in reverse.
Selling now isn’ t about perfection – it’ s about timing. The market is poised, the rates are low, and buyer activity is real. The conditions we’ re seeing today might not last. Sellers who act decisively stand to gain not just a result – but a real strategic advantage.”
RAY WHITE NOW NEW ZEALAND | 9