For homeowners, investors and those in the residential construction industry, this suggests future demand will be defined increasingly by household composition, not simply population totals.
Future housing demand will be defined increasingly by household composition, not simply population totals.
An ageing population may require fewer large family homes per capita, but more accessible, lowmaintenance homes located near services, transport and established communities.
By 2024, little over 17 per cent of New Zealanders were aged 65 or older, almost level with the 18.10 per cent aged under 15. SNZ expects the over-65 population to reach one million by 2029 and represent around one-fifth of the country by the middle of the next decade.
Graph showing New Zealand’ s ageing population and age distribution
That is not merely a demographic observation. It has implications for renovation, subdivision, retirement housing and the movement of existing homes between generations. A market can remain active without rapid population growth when the type and location of housing required keep changing.
A market can remain active without rapid population growth when the type and location of housing required keep changing.
AFFORDABILITY
The report records the Real Estate Institute of New Zealand( REINZ) national median price falling from $ 925,000 in November 2021 to $ 753,106 in January 2026 – almost one-fifth below its peak.
That correction has contributed to modest improvements in home ownership.
The 2023 Census found 66 per cent of households owned their own home or held it in a family trust( up from 64.50 per cent in 2018), marking the first recorded increase since 1991, when ownership stood at roughly 74 per cent.
Source: World Bank, Statistics New Zealand, New Zealand Initiative
Lower prices have improved affordability, but housing remains expensive relative to incomes.
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