A RECOVERY WITHOUT A TAILWIND
The Reserve Bank( RBNZ) held the Official Cash Rate( OCR) at 2.25 per cent in February, and inflation remains at 3.10 per cent, slightly above the one-to-three per cent target band. The rate-cutting cycle that supported the market through 2024 and 2025 appears to have run its course for now. That context makes February ' s result more meaningful.
Price growth is accelerating even as the monetary tailwind fades, suggesting the market ' s recovery is increasingly self-sustaining— driven by genuine demand, realistic vendor expectations, and a stock of buyers who have been waiting for the right conditions rather than chasing capital gains. The question heading into autumn is whether February ' s momentum can survive the typical seasonal slowdown.
Historically, March holds or extends February ' s gains before the April-July period brings its predictable softening. If the annual growth rate holds above three per cent through the cooler months, it will be a signal that New Zealand ' s housing market has genuinely entered a new phase.
RAY WHITE NOW NEW ZEALAND | 12