DANIEL COULSON CHIEF EXECUTIVE RAY WHITE NEW ZEALAND

In New Zealand, the macroeconomic backdrop is doing more of the heavy lifting than many Kiwis realise.

The Official Cash Rate( OCR) remains on hold at 2.25 per cent, with the Reserve Bank of New Zealand( RBNZ) signalling that inflation is expected to fall back toward the midpoint of its target band over the coming year, supported by spare capacity in the economy and modest wage growth.

In practical terms, that has helped restore a level of predictability to borrowing conditions. It has also allowed more households to revisit plans that were put on hold when rates were higher, servicing buffers were tighter, and economic confidence was weaker.

RBNZ: Expected change

That return of confidence is now visible in buyer behaviour. Reporting and data from across our Ray White member network suggest a market still subdued in headline value terms but improving beneath the surface.

National values, while down 0.1 per cent in the 12 months to January 2026, have supported affordability to improve to neardecade-best levels. Across New Zealand, sales activity is up 11.50 per cent year-on-year, and new listings remain fairly solid.

That’ s the profile of a market stabilising, absorbing improved credit conditions and welcoming participants back to the fore.

Just as crucially, demand is broadening.

First-home buyers remain active, investors have been returning as lower mortgage rates reduce cashflow pressure, and movers – often the most revealing buyer group in any cycle- are growing their market share

100

80

That matters because movers aren’ t speculating, they’ re responding to real life: employment, children, schooling, commuting, lifestyle changes, and community. When that cohort starts to re-engage, it’ s often a sign that households are no longer waiting for perfect clarity but rather making decisions in the market as it exists.

NEW ZEALAND CURRENT RATE RATE CHANGE FROM CURRENT

60

Current Rate 2.25 Wed 8 Apr 26 2.26 0.01

40

Wed 27 May 26 2.31 0.06 Wed 8 July 26 2.39 0.14 Wed 2 Sep 26 2.54 0.29

20

Wed 28 Oct 26 2.59 0.34 Wed 9 Dec 26 2.79 0.54

0 Apr May Jul Sep Oct Dec Feb Mar May Jun Cumulative Incremental

Source: RBNZ, Bloomberg, ANZ Research

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