Mortgage lending data from the RBNZ shows just 0.50 per cent of investor loans were written with deposits of less than 30 per cent in September – well below the theoretical five per cent cap( currently).
Despite the return of interest deductibility and improving residential returns, commentators say many investors may be waiting to see how discussion around a possible capital gains tax evolves, ahead of next year’ s general election.
Even so, data suggests a returning appetite. A growing share of investor loans now carries debt-to-income( DTI) ratios above seven, suggesting that borrowers are more confident in future rental returns and capital appreciation.
Should policy clarity improve, and lending rates continue to edge lower, the investor segment could emerge as a surprise driver of next year’ s housing market momentum.
STRESS LEVELS EASE
For all the volatility of recent years, the system appears healthy.
Non-performing loans( those more than 90 days overdue) have declined, prompting banks to scale back their‘ bad debt’ provisions.
In practice, that means fewer borrowers are falling behind on repayments, and lenders are confident that the risk of widespread mortgage defaults has eased.
This is no small point: mortgage stress is the true barometer of market risk. Its decline tells us that the adjustment of the past two years has done its job. Prices have reset, serviceability has improved, and households are absorbing costs without widespread strain.
Together, these trends paint a quietly optimistic picture for the months ahead.
Total mortgage lending, often referred to as‘ system growth’, is projected to accelerate into 2026 as refinancing, new purchases, and renewed borrower confidence explain the overall pool of housing finance.
As policy and pricing settle into a sustainable rhythm, lending will once again become the engine of mobility – the force that turns household intent into market reality.
For now, the numbers tell a story of composure: rates low, risk contained, participation rising. And in real estate, composure, together with confidence, is the most valuable condition of all.
RAY WHITE NOW NEW ZEALAND | 25