Despite this substantial 25 per cent increase in available properties over two years, prices have remained stable within a narrow $ 750,000- $ 801,000 band. This apparent contradiction reveals that rather than the speculation-driven dynamics of the pandemic era, where limited inventory drove aggressive bidding, the market now operates on utility-based demand.
In short: Buyers are entering the market because they need homes, not because they’ re chasing capital gains.
This idea is further backed by the data. In October, NZ’ s real estate sector recorded 7,505 new transactions, bringing the 12-month rolling count to 79,731, which is comfortably ahead of the same period in 2024 when annual sales totalled 70,714.
More tellingly, the sales-to-listings conversion ratio has held steady at 71.50 per cent- barely changed from September’ s 71.40 per cent and well above the post-correction low of 61 per cent recorded in February 2023.
This sustained conversion rate despite surging inventory indicates that the additional listings are meeting genuine demand rather than creating a buyer’ s strike.
Properties are clearing at a healthy pace, suggesting that sellers have realistic price expectations and buyers remain active across the market.
Source: REINZ, Ray White Economics
This equilibrium is being tested by changing macroeconomic conditions.
The Reserve Bank’ s( RBNZ’ s) Official Cash Rate( OCR) now sits at 2.25 per cent following consecutive cuts, creating the most accommodative lending environment in years.
Meanwhile, New Zealand’ s net migration has significantly decreased, with a net gain of just 12,400 migrants in the year to September 2025, down from 42,400 in the same period the previous year. This is the lowest net migration for a September year since 2013, excluding the pandemic.
Yet, prices haven’ t collapsed.
Historical patterns suggest listings typically moderate through November before declining into the holiday period. But if listings continue climbing while conversion rates hold steady, it would signal that New Zealand’ s market has achieved something rare: the foundation for sustainable growth.
Unlike the speculation-driven boom of 2020-2021, where limited inventory and FOMO( fear of missing out) drove prices up 30 per cent before crashing, today’ s market is absorbing record supply without distress.
Properties are clearing efficiently, buyers have a genuine need rather than speculative intent, and prices remain stable despite headwinds.
RAY WHITE NOW NEW ZEALAND | 11