REGIONAL DIVERGENCE
The survey also highlights how local conditions are shaping confidence in different ways. Auckland saw the sharpest fall in price expectations, down nearly 20 percentage points from last quarter, underscoring how supply gluts and affordability challenges are reshaping sentiment.
In the South Island, confidence has softened across the board, with respondents expecting a slower pace of gains. This fragmentation suggests the next phase of the market will not be defined by a single national story, but by a patchwork of regional dynamics.
READING THE SIGNALS
The ASB’ s overarching conclusion is that a gradual recovery in housing is underway, but at a slower pace than earlier anticipated.
While confidence remains historically high, and interest rates are falling, house price expectations are positive. Together, cross-currents in the current market create an environment that rewards decisiveness, not complacency.
For buyers, the signals suggest the greatest opportunity lies in securing finance before the easing cycle ends.
In contrast, optimism lifted in other North Island centres, where the entry for housing is lower and affordability metrics are more favourable.
For sellers, the lesson is equally clear: this is a market where positioning is power. Those who align with current conditions, rather than waiting for yesterday’ s dynamics to return, are best placed to leverage conditions in the months ahead.
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