Data shows a market in flux
The latest Housing Confidence Survey from ASB Bank offers a nuanced portrait of New Zealand’ s residential market dynamics: optimism remains intact, yet momentum may be slow to start.
For buyers and sellers, the findings point not to a single narrative, but to a market defined by competing forces – abundantly tempered by headwinds.
CONFIDENCE HOLDS AND SOFTENS
Immediately, the headline is encouraging; more New Zealanders still believe now is a good time to buy than not, keeping sentiment near its highest point since 2011.
However, a closer look at the numbers shows signs of buyer fatigue.
The proportion of respondents expecting house prices to rise has slipped for a second consecutive quarter, from 26 per cent to a net 18 per cent.
Regionally, confidence is fragmented.
Aucklanders – traditionally the bellwether – are now the least optimistic, while some parts of the North Island remain quietly bullish.
ASB economists say this divergence reflects an unusual moment in the cycle: the national mood is no longer driven by price expectations, but a more pragmatic appraisal of affordability, stock levels and interest rates.
For buyers and sellers, that makes timing and strategy more important than ever.
THE WEIGHT OF SUPPLY
One of the strongest signals from the report is the effect of supply. Inventory is sitting at a decade high, giving buyers greater choice and curbing anxieties like‘ FOMO’( fear of missing out) that once defined the market.
Sales activity, while improving, is yet to take off, and the imbalance between demand and ample supply remains a drag on prices.
However, high supply doesn’ t necessarily diminish opportunity for sellers – it reframes it. Well-presented and well-priced homes continue to attract the strongest competition, as buyers distinguish between stock that meets expectations and properties that feel out of step with market reality.
In this sense, the survey underscores the value of precision: sellers who calibrate in today’ s conditions, rather than yesterday’ s peak, are the ones securing results.
“ The national mood is no longer driven by price expectations, but a more pragmatic appraisal of affordability, stock levels and interest rates.”
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