Source: REINZ, Ray White Economics
Over the last six months, sales have been steadily increasing whilst listings have been decreasing, creating a convergence that historically signals the end of buyer-favourable conditions.
The 12-month rolling count of sales increased 6.30 per cent to 78,148 from 73,463 in January 2025, whilst the 12-month rolling count of listings decreased by 0.50 per cent to 110,055 from 110,618.
This divergence has driven the sales-to-listings conversion ratio to improve consistently, rising from 66.40 per cent in January to 71.00 per cent in July. This 4.60 percentage point acceleration represents the most sustained market tightening period since the post-pandemic correction began.
This tightening reflects both stronger buyer demand and more selective seller behaviour, creating potential upward pressure on prices. The diverging trajectories of sales acceleration(+ 6.30 per cent) and listings contraction(-0.50 per cent) create a compounding tightening effect that typically precedes sustained price appreciation cycles.
Looking ahead, these tightening fundamentals become particularly significant when viewed against seasonal patterns. If July 2025 can maintain near-flat pricing despite seasonal headwinds that typically drive prices down nearly two per cent, the spring months of September through November could deliver substantial growth.
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