Ray White Now New Zealand 19.10.2020 Version 22 - 19 October 2020 - Page 14


For most , picking the market ‘ peak ’ is easier said than done . In fact , more often than not , we only establish when the market peaked , as it either flattens or starts to decline . For those considering selling at present , getting that timing right , could be very important . Right now , there are several factors that are helping fuel the activity on the buying side of the transaction which is presented in the data throughout this document .
So , let ’ s have a look at what factors can have an impact on market conditions . It is well known that interest rates , supply , and demand can influence the market ; however there are also other factors such as weather conditions / seasons , loan to value restrictions or other legislative changes , general economic confidence and the performance of other investment categories .
Just as a rapidly improving market can catch buyers , sellers , and commentators off-guard , as we have recently experienced ; it can also change course again without a great deal of warning . There are several factors in the wider economy that are supporting confidence at present , but it is also important to be aware of potential impacts on the market later in the year and into 2021 .
The most recent ANZ Property Focus stated “ Mortgage rates are set to go even lower , especially once the OCR goes lower next year , though it may not be enough to offset wobbles that could emerge as the economy enters more challenging months ahead . We may see the current winter heat replaced by a summer chill .”
Whilst the current selling conditions are strong , it remains extremely hard and uncertain to predict what may happen in the real estate market over the next 6 months , 12 months and certainly the next few years . Those wishing to mitigate the risk of the potential unknown can enter the market with certainty around what has been seen over recent weeks .
Even though a number of economists and market commentators had previously predicted significant price declines in the wake of the Covid-19 pandemic , the majority have now revised those pricing predictions , at least for the short-term , but remain cautious about the future prospects for the residential real estate market .
For this reason , we will have a closer look at why some economists are still predicting a price decline in the next 12 months . Firstly , government stimulus continues to cushion the economy . Applications for the Small Business Cashflow Loan Scheme have been extended until 31 December 2020 . Banks have offered many homeowner ’ s mortgage deferment support which has been extended to 31 March 2021 . Economists think that when these support measures come to an end we will start to see larger volumes of new properties coming onto the market , causing a large supply of properties available .
The information is general information only , not financial advice , and does not take into account your individual objectives , financial situation or needs .