At the same time, policy uncertainty is easing, with the government reiterating its focus on housing supply and affordability.
“ Calls for a Capital Gains Tax( CGT) are back in the spotlight, with one industry body recently urging the government to broaden the tax base to address pressure on New Zealand’ s financial system.
“ While any CGT would likely apply only to future asset purchases, the mere prospect of tax changes often influences future investment decisions.
“ For buyers, acting before any potential initiative is introduced could future-proof their investment. For sellers, the current tax-free gains on residential property mightn’ t last forever, making now a strategic time to realise value.
“ When reform is on the table, timing is everything.”
Globally, trade tensions are de-escalating, and commodity prices remain firm, supporting New Zealand’ s export sector and regional economies.
Coulson says that the alarm following U. S President Trump’ s‘ Liberation Day’ tariff announcements in April has abated, supported by the confirmation of new trade deals with key partners, which have reduced uncertainty around growth and inflation.
“ While global sentiment has improved, the recent 15 per cent announcement of New Zealand’ s exports has some sectors on alert – particularly given how this lines up with
competing products from Australia and the U. K., which have a lower 10 per cent baseline tariff rate.
“ What this means for business confidence remains to be seen; however, it has the potential for downside risk to housing forecasts when added to a soft labour market.
“ Despite this, interest rate relief will continue to support household budgets, and with it, confidence will build, which is a powerful ingredient for housing market demand.
FLAT DOESN’ T MEAN FRAGILE
“ While 2025 hasn’ t delivered the explosive rebound some had hoped for, it has laid the groundwork for a healthier, more sustainable cycle. The emotional highs and lows of the past decade, from speculative booms to pandemic-induced busts, have given way to something more measured.
In markets like this, steady, not sensational, the real opportunity lies in being ahead of the curve, Coulson says.“ Momentum is quietly returning, and those who act early tend to shape the cycle, not chase it.”
“ What we have now are functional fundamentals: credit is loosening, competition is rising, and conditions are aligning for considered moves.
“ For homeowners looking to upsize, investors eager to pivot, or sellers weighing their next step, it is a market that will reward action over hesitation. Not because it’ s booming – but because it’ s working. In real estate, that’ s when the smart money moves.”
RAY WHITE NOW NEW ZEALAND | 9