The regional picture continues to favour affordable areas, with West Coast($ 480,000, up 9.30 per cent), Otago($ 720,000, up 6.70 per cent) and Southland($ 515,000, up 5.70 per cent) leading annual growth.
At the other end, some sharp declines appeared in smaller markets. Gisborne fell 13.7 per cent and Northland 12.5 per cent, though both recorded very few sales( 14 and 12 respectively), making their medians volatile.
WHAT TO WATCH
The market enters 2026 on familiar footing: prices holding within the $ 750,000 to $ 800,000 range that has prevailed since early 2024. Transaction volumes are gradually improving, and a level of supply that offers buyers meaningful change.
Over the past year, the Official Cash Rate( OCR) has fallen by 200 basis points to 2.25 per cent, a shift that has helped to stabilise activity through 2025. Looking ahead, however, the path is less linear. Inflation edged up in the December quarter, reducing the likelihood of further nearterm rate cuts.
Population growth is also normalising. Net migration for the year to December 2025 was 14,173 people-well below the exceptional inflows seen two years earlier. While still positive, migration is no longer providing the same level of incremental demand.
The key question for 2026 is how quickly inflation moderates and whether policy settings can remain supportive as the economy regains momentum. Regardless of the precise path, the market continues to be shaped primarily by genuine housing need rather than speculative pressure. Pricing remains realistic, participation measured, and decisions driven more by circumstance than urgency – hallmarks of a stable, maturing phase of the cycle.
RAY WHITE NOW NEW ZEALAND | 12