From boom to balance: New Zealand’ s housing market in three phases
Atom Go Tian Senior Data Analyst Ray White Group
New Zealand’ s housing market continues to find balance, having evolved through three distinct phases since the COVID pandemic.
Peak pandemic activity and record-low lending rates saw speculative demand drive prices to unsustainable levels.
The post-pandemic correction followed as sales collapsed 41 per cent, listings fell 20 per cent, and prices dropped 19 per cent from their peaks.
The beginning of 2023 marked the start of the recovery phase as prices stabilised, followed shortly after by increases in both sales and listings.
This August, Ray White noted the median national house price of $ 761,000 sat well within the $ 750,000 to $ 800,000 range observed for the last two and a half years.
New listing levels returned to pandemic peaks early in 2025, but have since plateaued, with the 12-month rolling count sitting at 110,000. Meanwhile, sales experienced their first flat month since the 2023 recovery began.
Sales peaked at 78,000 in the 12 months to July 2025- up 34 per cent from the most recent market trough.
Between August 2024 and 2025, sales again recorded 78,000- the first time in 29 months that transaction volumes showed no increase. This plateau comes despite the Reserve Bank of New Zealand( RBNZ) lowering its Official Cash Rate( OCR) by 25 basis points to three per cent at its August 2025 meeting.
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