A MIXED OUTLOOK
This trend aligns with the research firm’ s long-running forecast: a softening in FHB’ s market share in 2025, following a period of elevated activity and a return of mortgages investors from historic lows.
However, Davidson is quick to suggest that this doesn’ t necessarily spell doom for first-time purchasers.“ We expect the overall number of property transactions in 2025 to be about 10,000 higher than in 2024,” he says.
“ That means FHBs can( and probably will) purchase more properties this year than last, even if their share of total activity drops slightly.”
Several supportive factors remain in place for FHBs, including access to KiwiSaver for deposit contributions and priority access to low-deposit lending from banks.
These advantages, coupled with a more balanced market and growing listings, mean FHBs are still very much in the game.
For investors, the economic landscape remains more favourable than it has been in some time. Lower mortgage lending rates have improved cashflow dynamics, and potential volatility in other asset classes( such as equities, which may be impacted by international trade tariffs and broader market uncertainty) could make property a comparatively attractive investment.
A MARKET IN MOTION
The year’ s first quarter has been transitional for the local property landscape.
First-home buyers, long a dominant force, are starting to step back, making room for mortgaged investors, especially smaller-scale entrants. This rebalancing is influenced by macroeconomic conditions, policy changes and evolving affordability dynamics.
While some headline figures may suggest waning FHB activity, the broader context reveals a still active, if slightly recalibrated, group of buyers. Meanwhile,‘ Mum and Dad’ investors are quietly regaining ground, helped by improved lending conditions and a more level tax playing field.
If current patterns continue, we may see a more diversified mix of buyers in 2025, with total transaction volumes expected to rise. That’ s good news for the market overall and a sign of growing confidence and opportunity as both ends of the buyer spectrum find their footing.
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