Building consent issuance has been declining , particularly in major cities like Auckland and Wellington , and some regional areas like Taranaki have been hardest hit . For homeowners , these trends offer valuable insights into the recent market slowdown and serve as a likely indicator of when property prices may peak again in the upward leg of this next cycle . As scarcity tends to drive buyer urgency , understanding these dynamics is critical to positioning oneself strategically before the market shifts again .
HOMEOWNERSHIP INCREASES
One of the most interesting insights from the latest census data is the reversal in declining homeownership rates . In 2023 , 66 per cent of households owned or held their home in a family trust – a slight but significant increase from 64.5 per cent in 2018 .
“ One of the most interesting insights from the latest census data is the reversal in declining homeownership rates .“
This trend has broken the decades-long decline in homeownership , influenced by more favourable affordability conditions and the emergence of firsthome buyers as a dominant buyer group over the last several years .
Nevertheless , affordability challenges persist , particularly in major cities like Auckland , where home ownership remains the lowest at 59.9 per cent . As property prices remain elevated in city centres , suburban and regional housing markets may see continued demand , with buyers seeking more affordable alternatives outside urban centres .
To continue to address affordability constraints , Kiwis may see the development of shared equity schemes and alternative ownership solutions aimed at making this more accessible to a broader population .
AGEING POPULATION SHIFTS THE DIAL ON HOUSING NEEDS
Kiwis are ageing . Census data reported that the median age has risen from 37.4 years in 2018 to 38.1 in 2023 . Areas like Thames-Coromandel , Kaikōura , and Kāpiti have an exceptionally high concentration of older residents , with more than 27 per cent of the local population aged over 65 .
This demographic shift will likely influence future housing demand as older homeowners downsize or seek retirement-focused communities . Housing providers can leverage this trend by looking at changes which promote smaller , low-maintenance homes designed to meet the needs of older residents .
This ageing population may also spur intergenerational wealth transfers , which could shape property ownership patterns in the coming years .
“ New Zealand ’ s ageing population could spur intergenerational wealth transfers , shaping property ownership patterns in the coming years .”
Another critical consideration is the expected increase in retirees renting privately . According to projections , the number of retirees renting is expected to double by 2048 , presenting an opportunity for the private rental sector to adapt to the needs of older tenants by offering age-friendly housing with accessibility modifications .
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