A MESSAGE FROM OUR MANAGING DIRECTOR
In a national newspaper article published in early March 2023 , we were described as being “ perennially bullish ”. The article focussed on the state of the Australian real estate market , quoting a number of economists and yours truly . We were quoted as saying that we expected a strong month of trading in March given that we ’ d seen buying activity building for the past three months or so .
We certainly take no offence by the description given to us - the journalist is one of the best real estate journalists in the country . What we were saying went against all expectations . To most , it didn ’ t make any sense at all . And when we would speak to journalists and other commentators and describe what we were seeing , we were naturally met with a healthy level of scepticism .
The basis upon which we concluded that the market in general was lifting , was both anecdotal and statistical . The anecdotal being the stories , the reactions , and the “ gut feel ” we were experiencing . When there ’ s consistency of surprise from our members when they ’ re reporting their sales results , our antenna immediately goes up ! The statistical information over this period supported the anecdotal trends , and gave us confidence that such a turnaround was genuinely occurring .
One of the most powerful changes that ’ s taken place in the real estate industry over the past five years or so has been the availability and surfacing of all sorts of data that enables us to challenge anecdotal evidence . We integrate data feeds from 29 data sources , and store over eight billion records and 40 terabytes of market information . Our 71 software and data engineers , data scientists , product managers , digital business development executives and technology support analysts are then able to present all forms of data to us to help us make sense of what ’ s occurring . The advancement in the insights that a real estate agency business like ours can now provide
was the basis for launching Ray White Now in May 2021 . We subsequently established our economics team , led by Nerida Conisbee , to ensure we best understand and communicate these insights , and consider and overlay broader economic influences .
From December 2022 onwards , our data relating to both early stage buyer activity ( e . g . open for inspection numbers and loan pre-approvals ) to late stage activity ( e . g . auction bidder numbers ) has continued to strengthen .
In terms of Australian March 2023 sales , we had a very strong month , writing $ 5.8 billion . This was our best month since May 2022 and not too far below the recordbreaking figures of March 2022 . New South Wales was particularly strong , as was Queensland and Western Australia . There are still some inconsistencies though across sub-markets and price points .
We were bullish earlier this year and our March sales numbers support us taking that view . But are we “ perennially ” bullish ? We weren ’ t bullish in September and October of 2022 , in the sense that we thought that volumes and prices would rise in the short term . But it ’ s important to point out that even in a market where there are contracting volumes , and prices are dropping , we ’ ll remain just as vocal as we are in a strong market . There are winners in a down market , just as there are in a rising market . There are also losers in a down market , just as there are in a rising market .
What we seek to be is “ perennially informed ”, or more accurately , we want our customers to be perennially informed . We hope you enjoy this edition of Ray White Now .
Dan White Managing Director Ray White Group
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