Rail Analysis India March 2018 Digital Magazine | Page 62

Article | 61
Metro Projects
Analysis of Metro rail project selection bias with Principal
Agent model : A case of Delhi, Bangalore, Mumbai, Jaipur
and Chennai Metro Rail Systems
Introduction
Delhi has highest ridership trends, whereas Chennai has
the lowest. It should be noted that each system has different
length and urban coverage.
Metro rail system Forecast and Actual Cost
A rail transit project requires large capital investment when compared to other modes.
Accordingly, the forecast of travel demand, revenue and costs, which justifies the
investments, shall be accurately done. As noted by (Pickrell,1989), despite of the high
expectations, the sustainability of the rail transit projects is often found questioned.
Vinod Rathod
Metro Projects
In the present day, many Indian cities are showing significant interest in Metro rail
projects. The current Metro rail selection practice not only lacks clarity in defining
target expectations but also is devoid of any review model to check if the projected
targets are met. There is an urgent need to study about such Metro rail investments,
with focus on their decision-making process, planning/investment objective and
outcomes.
It was observed from Delhi Phase-1, that actual cost is 118%
higher than the estimated (in 2002). In phase-2 the cost is
revised twice, (Rs.8776 Cr changed to Rs.15000 Cr). In case
of Bangalore, capital cost expenditure is 59% higher than the
original cost. (Forecasted cost Rs. 8158 Cr and It reached
up to Rs.13000 Cr in 2011). The Jaipur metro system was
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also built 59% more than the estimated cost, because the
underground tunnels in the old city, added additional costs in
project. In the implementation of Mumbai metro system, the
estimated cost for line-1 was Rs.2356 Cr., the completion
cost reached more than double the amount Rs.4321 Cr. (85
% difference). In case of Chennai, the forecast and actual
cost difference was 40%.
The fig.2 explains the detail components wise metro rail
operation cost. It was observed that facilities management
and fuel are major components of operation cost.
Graduate Transport
Engineer at Arcadis
To analyse metro rail performance and Principal agent model, a sample group
of cities like Delhi, Bangalore, Mumbai, Jaipur and Chennai are selected. The
Delphi method and semi – structured interviews with the officers, Planners and
Expert infield were adopted for the study. The primary indicators of Metro rail
performance; cost and ridership, forecast and outcomes data were collected and
scrutinized during the comparison.
Performance Analysis
Ridership
During the analysis process of Metro rail projects in India, It was observed from
the literature and interviewers that, expected ridership demand is the key criteria
for Metro rail investments. The metro rail ridership trends of five cities are shown
in the fig.1.It Shows that
Image Credit: wikipedia
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