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change is considered . “ About 500 Arctic villages and cities are located in areas where permafrost is expected to thaw by the middle of this century ”, explains Professor Miska Luoto of the Department of Geosciences and Geography , The BioGeoClimate Modelling Lab , at the University of Helsinki . Transport and transportation infrastructure , such as railways , as well as oil and natural gas pipelines , appear to be in the most vulnerable positions . Relatively speaking , the greatest amount of infrastructure is in hazard areas in the mountainous regions of Central Asia , where temperatures of permafrost are already close to 0 degrees Celsius .
“ We must consider that in these geographically very extensively analyses areas , it has not been possible to take into account the ‘ heat load ’ caused by construction and buildings themselves , so the threats could easily become tangible in extensive damage to buildings before the end of this century ”, Hjort says .
The costs of infrastructure maintenance and repair related to the bearing capacity of permafrost could reach about 30 billion euros in the Arctic region by 2060 . In Russia alone , the costs could exceed 20 billion euros . However , the estimates were seen to contain a large amount of uncertainty caused by the data . “ The fact that no corresponding cost estimates have been available from the extensive permafrost areas in China can also be seen as a drawback ”, Luoto adds .
PROPOSALS FOR A MORE SUSTAINABLE FUTURE The review also puts forward ways to try to prepare for future threats . Also needed , in addition to numerous existing solutions of construction technology , are more precise forecasts of future changes in permafrost . More detailed data and forecasts could enable better surveys of areas in danger and more detailed cost estimates . Also , better dialogue among researchers , planners , builders , decision-makers , and other actors in the permafrost area was seen as important in the search for a more sustainable future .
This is an extract of the full paper by Jan Hjort , Dmitry Streletskiy , Guy Doré , Qingbai Wu , Kevin Bjella and Miska Luoto . RACA
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RACA Journal I March 2022 www . hvacronline . co . za