www . refrigerationandaircon . co . za RACA Journal I August 2023 7
Associations initiatives within the HVAC & R industry . Several factors contribute to the urgency of this endeavour , including the rapid growth of urbanisation and population . As cities across the world continue to expand , the demand for energy-efficient heating , ventilation , air conditioning , and refrigeration systems ( HVAC & R ) intensifies .
UNPRECEDENTED URBANISATION Urbanisation is a phenomenon witnessed globally , and its impact is profound . Analysing data from Africa , for instance , reveals a staggering rate of growth in major cities . The astonishing growth per hour in Johannesburg , for instance , stands at 21 people per hour – and 77 people per hour in Lagos . This trend is not limited to Africa alone but holds true worldwide . From South Africa to the US , from Pakistan to Brazil , cities are witnessing an influx of residents while rural areas experience population decline . Understanding these migration patterns and their implications becomes vital for effective HVAC & R planning .
When we couple urbanisation with projected global population growth , the magnitude of the challenge becomes evident . According to the United Nations , the world population is estimated to approach ten billion by 2050 , with recent reports marking the arrival of the eight billionth person on the planet . To accommodate this population surge , an astonishing 3 500 new buildings must be constructed daily , equivalent to building a new New York City every month for three decades . Such a monumental task underscores the criticality of the HVAC & R industry ' s contributions in ensuring energy-efficient and sustainable buildings .
Buildings account for approximately 35 % of global energy consumption and contribute around 38 % of carbon emissions . As a result , decarbonising the built environment becomes a crucial focus for achieving overall emissions reductions . While it is essential to address other industries like transportation , the HVAC & R sector shoulders the majority of the responsibility .
THE JEVONS PARADOX Efficiency gains in energy consumption often face the Jevons paradox : ‘ Improvements lead to increased energy usage due to lower costs and enhanced usability .’ The US Energy Information Administration predicts a 28 % increase in energy consumption by 2040 , reflecting this paradox . The decreasing cost of petrol , for example , encourages the purchase of larger vehicles with greater fuel consumption . Recognising and addressing such behavioural tendencies is essential to curbing energy demand and achieving net zero targets .
The consequences of inaction in the face of climate change are already manifesting worldwide . Rising temperatures contribute to extreme weather events , including floods , sea-level rise , wildfires , and heatwaves . Recent examples from South Africa and Pakistan demonstrate the devastating effects of heavy rainfall and flooding . The frequency and intensity of these events
Image from www . freepik . com continue to escalate , emphasising the urgent need for swift action to mitigate climate change .
Recognising the severity of the climate crisis , the international community united under the Paris Accord in 2015 . With a goal of limiting global temperature rise to below 2 ° C , and ideally 1.5 ° C , the accord received support from 196 nations , save for one . It is now crucial to translate these commitments into concrete actions . By 2030 , the building sector must reduce carbon dioxide emissions by 50 % to stay on track .
The path towards achieving net-zero emissions in the HVAC & R industry is faced with significant challenges . When we closely examine the outcomes of COP 27 , it becomes evident that we are falling short of meeting our goals . Limiting global warming to 1.5 ° C seems increasingly unlikely , and even restricting it to 2 ° C by 2050 appears to be a formidable task . With the planet already experiencing a 1.1 ° C rise , the frequency of extreme events like floods , droughts , and wildfires will continue to increase .
Acknowledging the urgency of the situation , a Task Force on Decarbonisation was formed by then President Schwedler and renewed by President Mehboob of Pakistan . This is in the belief that ASHRAE must prioritise decarbonisation to align with global efforts , particularly the objectives outlined in the Paris Agreement . Decarbonisation encompasses a broader spectrum of issues than just energy efficiency , although energy efficiency remains a vital component .
President Mehboob of Pakistan outlined three pillars that serve as the foundation for ASHRAE ' s strategy and approach . The first pillar is energy efficiency , emphasising its enduring significance within ASHRAE ' s mission . The other two pillars are transitioning to cleaner energy sources and shifting towards electricity generated from low-carbon sources . While relatively new to ASHRAE , these pillars play a crucial role in the decarbonisation process .
The concept of net-zero energy buildings holds foremost importance in this endeavour . Net-zero energy buildings aim to have no adverse energy impact , ideally generating surplus energy to meet the needs of human comfort , building safety , and processes . Defining the boundaries of ‘ zero ’ poses a challenge ,
Analysing data reveals a staggering rate of growth in major cities .
www . refrigerationandaircon . co . za RACA Journal I August 2023 7