8
Associations
It is fair to say that each of these methods has its merits and over many years they have a generally good safety track record . However , over the years the first method has become more and more complicated and is increasingly difficult to justify . Recent discussions in the standards-writing community have called these two approaches the ‘ intrinsic design method ’ and the ‘ extrinsic design method ’. In the former case , provided the installer purchases a system from a product manufacturer and follows the installation instructions the system will be safe , whereas in the latter case someone must take on the role of system designer for the installation , conducting risk assessments and ensuring that all necessary steps identified by the risk assessment to ensure safety are implemented .
This differentiation would be okay provided it could be ensured that every system was installed in accordance with the safety standard . Most accidents and injuries occur when the standards are not followed . In that case it doesn ’ t help to make the standard more complicated ; that ’ s just an added burden making compliance less likely . If flammable refrigerants are to be used safely there is an urgent need to improve adherence to safety standards . Like the electricity generation-cleaning process described above , this has two facets , and both are necessary for a successful outcome . The text of the standards needs to be simplified so that it is easy to follow and adoption of the standard needs to be rigorously enforced . There is no point relaxing the standard if nobody uses it , but there ’ s also no advantage in enforcing a complex requirement that is impossible to implement in practice .
6 . TWENTY YEARS FROM NOW This overview has taken a broad sweep from the mid-1990s with a 50-year time scale . That would get us to 2045 , but it is important at the outset of the future part of the review to emphasise that this is not a final destination for the journey to a better world . Things will continue to change and new opportunities will continue to appear . The following comments offer an insight into some of the possible futures that may arise .
If the global efforts of the Kyoto Protocol , the Kigali Amendment and the Paris Agreement are as effective in addressing climate change as the Montreal Protocol has been then we can expect to see several themes by 2045 . Electricity will largely be sourced from renewables , principally wind and solar power , with the challenge of resilience and intermittency addressed by a range of short- , medium- and long-term energy storage solutions , including pumped hydro storage , central battery banks and the adaption of distributed battery resources , for example in homes or electric vehicles .
South Africa is well placed , provided suitable investment is available , to play a large part in this revolution . Solar power could be harnessed to manufacture hydrogen to be converted locally to electricity in fuel cells or transformed to ammonia for longterm storage or global transportation . If large thermal plants are required to provide frequency stability for the grid , then either hydrogen or ammonia can be burned in turbines , displacing coal and gas to reduce CO2 emissions .
Wind power can be tapped during periods of high generation capacity to manufacture ammonia for longer term storage , with each 1.5MW turbine requiring a 50m3 ammonia storage tank to provide two weeks of generator output . This ammonia storage could be held locally , or could be centralised , depending on the resilience of the distribution grid . In this sense , the target of 30 % renewables by 2030 should be seen as the start of the process , not the conclusion .
Having ‘ greened the grid ’, more and more users of heat and cold will transition onto the electrical network , including transport and a much-extended cold chain . The population of Africa will have increased by almost one billion people by 2045 and most of the additional number will be living in cities not rural communities .
The growth in the cold chain to serve that population will be substantial and avoid placing excessive strain on the infrastructure , refrigeration systems will have to be efficient and flexible , taking power when it is available , using solar panels during the day and coasting on minimum load through the night .
If fluorinated refrigerants are no longer available then most applications will be served by ammonia , carbon dioxide or hydrocarbons . The increase in urban populations will provide huge opportunities in all sectors of the HVAC & R industry but there is an urgent need for significant improvement in safety , reliability , efficiency and effectiveness of our current systems . The real key to this improvement lies in education and training .
Even if this forecast of the future of fluorinated refrigerants turns out to be too pessimistic and the world finds ways to be
8
RACA Journal I April 2025 www . refrigerationandaircon . co . za