COMMENT
SA: rocky roads,
no confidence
T
his year has been a tumultuous
one for South Africa: we
entered our first (technical)
recession since 2009, were
downgraded to junk status following the
cabinet reshuffle, and had the Central
Bank halve its growth forecast to 0.5%
in July. And then of course there is the
seemingly unending drama surrounding
the Mining Charter.
After announcing that the revised
Mining Charter was the result of
proper consultation with all interested
parties, Gupta-linked Mineral Resources
Minister Mosebenzi Zwane maintained
that this “revolutionary tool” would be
implemented, despite the Chamber of
Mines declaring that it would seek an
urgent interdict to stop implementation.
When implementation of the Charter
was suspended less than a month after its
introduction, Zwane’s next move was to
propose a moratorium on the issuance of
new mining and prospecting rights and
the transfer of mineral rights. The DMR
drew a last-minute halt to the proposed
moratorium — an action confirmed by
a court order, coupled with scathing
commentary from presiding Judge
Monama regarding Zwane’s “utmost
disrespect” for the Constitution. At this
point, it feels a little like watching a
playground argument, only with much
more profound consequences.
In August, Statistics South Africa
released the results of the Quarterly
Labour Force Survey (QLFS) for the
second quarter of 2017, indicating that
employment had declined by 113 000 to
approximately 16.1 million, while the
employment to population ratio declined
by 0.4 of a percentage point to 43.3%.
The decline was driven by six of the 10
industries, with the largest decreases
being recorded in construction (110 000)
and agriculture (40 000).
The number of jobs in the mining
sector decreased by 13 000 in the same
period, mainly driven by losses in the
mining of metal ores, and other mining
and quarrying. And this trend seems
unlikely to change anytime soon, with
over 18 000 job cuts already having been
announced just in July. This adds to the
more than 70 000 job losses in the mining
industry since 2012. And the Chamber
warns of over 100 000 additional job cuts
should the Charter be implemented in its
current form.
Although the job cuts announced have
predominantly been in the gold mining
sector, the challenges posed by the
economic conditions, as well as the issues
surrounding the contentious Charter,
affect not only those in other areas of
mining, including the quarrying industry,
but South Africa as a whole.
The next issue on the South African
agenda is the latest Zuma no-confidence
vote — the fourth he has faced in his
eight years in office, in addition to one
that was passed as a vote of confidence
and a further one that was withdrawn.
This one, however, will take place under
secret ballot. Although analysts deem it
unlikely that this vote will succeed, the
question remains: how much more can
South Africa take? n
Robyn Grimsley - Editor
[email protected]
QUARRY SA | SEPTEMBER 2017 _ 1