108
Wayne Foord
‘conventional’1 oil has already peaked, and ‘all liquids’2 production has
reached a plateau (Birol 2010; Miller and Sorrell 2013; Murray and King
2012). This article argues that the peak in oil production is associated
with the emergence of a post-liberal order, as anticipated by the more
pessimistic contributions to the ‘politics of scarcity’ debate, initiated in
the 1970s. Trends towards a post-liberal order can also be seen within
the global food-system in the form of land-grabbing, and the widespread
imposition of genetically modified (GM) based industrial agriculture.
Given continuing fossil fuel depletion, this new order will be unsustainable, and opportunities may arise for new forms of local participatory
governance to evolve.
Alternative proposals from the transition movement for food-system resilience are examined, and lessons from Cuba’s experience of energy
scarcity during the 1990s ‘Special Period’ are identified. In particular,
the process of forced decentralisation during the Special Period, and the
contribution of community-led insurgent planning. It is argued that the
concept of insurgent planning could be extended to more strategic infrastructure and governance, including alternative food initiatives.
The Limits to Growth Report and Politics of Scarcity
The first Limits to Growth report (Meadows et al 1972) presented a
ground-breaking systems-dynamics model that simulated interactions
between population growth, food production, industrialisation, pollution, and resource depletion. The business-as-usual scenario indicated a
collapse of industrial output and food production beginning in the second decade of this century, with a subsequent collapse of global population starting around 2050. The report was subjected to derision and
‘Conventional’ oil and gas refers to easy-to-access, land-based and shallow water
fields; ‘non-conventional’ oil and gas includes deep water oil, tar sands, shale gas and
oil.
2 ‘All liquids’ combines both conventional and non-conventional sources of oil and
gas.
1