SCOTT PICKEN
PROPERTY GOING GLOBAL
FOREWORD BY CLEM SUNTER
INTRODUCTION
Chantell Ilbury and I have evolved a way of looking at the future like a
fox since we published The Mind of a Fox in 2001. It involves sketching
different possible futures, which we call scenarios, attaching flags to each
scenario, and based on whether the flags are rising or falling, giving a
subjective probability to each scenario. Then we ask individuals or
companies to gauge the impact of the scenario on them and, depending
on the probability, decide what should be done to chase the opportunities
and counter the threats. It is a simple technique which takes into account
that much about the future is unpredictable and beyond the control of
the player in the game.
Scott Picken has taken our foxy methodology and applied it in the
field of property investment in a very readable and interesting way. The
book explores a model linking the global economic and South African
political scenarios to the implications for the property market and
considers how the probabilities attached to the scenarios could affect
investment decisions on property. This is a very interesting development
as I have always said that playing scenarios by themselves is daydreaming.
Converting them into sensible and relevant options for action is where
their true value lies.
This model makes total sense, I haven’t got the knowledge in the
property sector, I can do the probability, I can do the scenarios, I can do
the flags and based on those scenarios I can see this is the impact on various
countries, this is the impact on properties in most countries. I think your
model has done exactly that and I have heard from a lot of people that
what they take away from
your model is that USA is
the best place to invest. But I
come back to my point that
you need to be diversified;
don’t invest everything into
property.
I hope that the content
of this book will therefore
convert its readers into foxy
property investors. Enjoy it.
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The right information at the right time is nine-tenths of any battle.
– Napoleon
Glocalisation – what does it mean? How does it impact you? What effect
is it having on the global village and the country you live in? How will
it shape your future? What do you need to know to ensure your future
success?
The bottom-line is, if you don’t have the answers to these questions,
you will be forced to react to the often whimsical and unpredictable
global economy, rather than creating your own future.
According to Wikipedia, glocalisation is “Thinking globally, acting
locally” and, as I sit 30,000 feet above the USA, taking a flight to invest in
more property, I am contemplating these questions and determining how
I can share with you my experience, so that you too, can benefit.
THE STORY OF MY DAD – WHY I LOVE BUSINESS AND PROPERTY
I chose a picture of my dad as a young man, one
when he had so much promise. People always ask
me why business and why property? Well, I have
explained how my parents instilled in me a feeling of
self-belief and an insatiable drive for success. What I
haven’t told you is why I was so determined to master
business and property. I told you how my father
always wanted to be a farmer and work for himself,
but was denied the opportunity by the politics in Zimbabwe. Having
retrained as a chartered accountant at the age of 27, he rose through the
ranks to become the Financial Director of Rainbow Chickens. He always
yearned to run his own business, and was always trying things (quite
unsuccessfully) on the side.
When I was in my matric year he decided he was ready to take the
plunge. He took early retirement and was paid out a pension of R500,000,
something for which he had worked for over 22 years. As most people
did at the time, he put this into the stock market on the advice of some
“clever” pension broker. Unfortunately, it was not a happy tale because
within three months of having left Rainbow Chicken to start the new
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