Both parties are setting out early in hot pursuit of an estimated 4 million
The big prize : GOP and Democrats seek Florida ’ s Independents as 2020 election nears
GOP and Democratics Florida Independents David Smiley Jacksonville , Florida September 2019
Both parties are setting out early in hot pursuit of an estimated 4 million
By David Smiley
Guest Columnist
In battleground Florida — a state President Donald Trump believes he must win next year to be reelected — the right and left are already in voter-registration mode to build their ranks .
Democrats have audaciously aimed to add 1 million people to their cause ahead of the presidential election . Republicans , meanwhile , have quietly shrunk Democrats ’ numerical advantage below 244,000 voters for the first time since at least 1972 .
Both parties are setting out early in hot pursuit of an estimated 4 million unregistered and eligible voters . But the arms race isn ’ t only about out-organizing the opposition . Heading into 2020 , both Democrats and Republicans are also shifting tactics to keep voters from joining the fastest-growing bloc in Florida : Independents , whose meteoric rise has thrown a state known for razor-thin election margins even further into electoral uncertainty .
Republican Party of Florida Chairman Joe Gruters , who said the ballooning number of independents makes them a “ commanding presence ” in 2020 , is well aware of the trend . “ We ’ re aggressively going after these new voters ,” he said .
Democratic leaders are pounding home the same point . “ We can ’ t continue with the status quo ,” said Scott Arceneaux , a former Florida Democratic Party executive who helped push Democrats ’ voter advantage over Republicans to 560,000 during
Program Success 6 September 2019
President Barack Obama ’ s 2012 reelection campaign . “ You ’ re going to need to have a big partisan effort on behalf of the state party , and on behalf of the presidential candidates .”
The numbers show why party organizers are already in gear . At the beginning of August , there were 4.968 million registered Democrats in Florida , and 4.724 million Republicans . Voters without party affiliation stood at 3.616 million — a number that has exploded since George W . Bush won the presidency in 2000 by a Florida margin of 537 votes .
At the time , independents numbered about 1.5 million , equal to about 17 percent of registered voters in the state . Now they make up more than a quarter of the state ’ s voters — even though they can ’ t vote in Florida ’ s party primaries . And their numbers have risen at a rate equal to the combined growth of both the Democratic and Republican parties .
Much of that trend is organic , a product of frustration with America ’ s gridlocked politics , the coming of age of party-averse youth and an influx of Hispanic immigrants who lack historical ties to the political parties . Independents are growing in power and size across the country .
There may be another factor at play , too , though its influence is limited . Some election experts believe the rise of the independent voter in Florida is also due to the Democratic Party ’ s growing reliance on a network of nonprofits that register voters — and are prohibited by law from pushing ideology along with paperwork .
As the first teams of organizers begin to fan out across the state during what has traditionally been the sleepy off-season , Democrats and Republicans are hiring new employees and budgeting millions of dollars for voter registration .
And Democrats are calling on deeppocketed donors to give up their usual tax-deductible donations to the nonprofits that register voters in nonpartisan efforts — often known by their federal tax code number , 501c3 — and divert some of their money to the state party or into independent “ dark money ” 501c4 political operations that , without disclosing donors , can push a partisan message .
Sign up for the Daily Buzz newsletter Steve Schale , a Democratic strategist who led Obama ’ s 2008 Florida campaign , believes party registration has become one of the clearest indicators of which candidate will prevail in an election as the country becomes more polarized . Independents muddy the outlook , but Schale said that if Democrats want to win , they need to significantly outnumber Republicans , who have proven better in Florida at turning out their voters .
“ If more of them vote than us , and we have less of us , then we ’ re always going to be threading a needle ,” he said .
One Republican strategist questioned the wisdom of throwing more money and