The GOP will verbally attack it and legislatively tweak it , but the Affordable Care Act , in some form , is staying .
In the Next Congress , Will Obamacare Really Be in Danger ?
By : CHARLES D . ELLISON Guest Columnist
The GOP will verbally attack it and legislatively tweak it , but the Affordable Care Act , in some form , is staying .
We ’ re not even halfway to the next presidential election cycle , and here we go again : Obamacare . Forcing that derisive nickname down our throats , Republicans are pushing President Barack Obama ’ s signature legislative achievement as their primary political target in the new Congress , while Democrats are too scared to own it — leaving the American public scratching their heads and asking , “ What next ?”
The short answer is that in all probability , the Affordable Care Act isn ’ t going anywhere , but there ’ s a good chance that after a couple of years , it won ’ t be exactly the same ACA some of you love and others hate .
Obamacare in danger Charles D . Ellison Jacsonvilee ., Florida December 2014
D I ' '
To recap : Democrats pretty much handed over Senate control to Republicans because , among other things , they couldn ’ t figure out how to come up with a solid health care message in 2014 - when all they had to do was wrap it nicely into a coherent economic pitch . And in a not-so-surprising move less than three days after the November midterms , a conservative Supreme Court announced that it would be taking a look at the ACA yet again , this time on the question of federal subsidies for state exchanges .
Now , by design , you have a high court faking that it ’ s not political , when it ’ s really huddling with a GOP-dominated Congress that ’ s less interested in policymaking - and more interested in throwing up roadblocks to Obama ’ s health-coverage law .
Don ’ t worry , folks - the law isn ’ t going anywhere . Waste-of-time House hearings spent grilling once-unknown White House health care advisers like Jonathan Gruber are just drama to keep us confused during the ACA open-enrollment period . Republicans just get closer to splitting the difference with exhausted Democrats , and then keep winning more elections ( keep your eye on the Kentucky and Louisiana gubernatorial races next year ).
Expect the Supreme Court to nix subsidies while Congress obliterates Medicaid and the individual mandates . “ That alone is enough to bring down the health care law ,” Sen . John Barrasso ( R-Wyo .) told Politico recently . “ We ’ re going to continue to try to , one , repeal ; two , strip out the worst parts of the law ; and three , look to the courts .”
There ’ s one common theme : Cut that poor ( black and brown ) people , welfare-looking stuff , since , let ’ s face it , they aren ’ t our political constituency in the first place . Never mind that poor white people , most of whom vote Republican , need this stuff as much as the people of color who do .
But it ’ s a delicate political dance . Expanded Medicaid might be an easy target , but 7 in 10 Americans actually dig the government health care exchanges , according to Gallup - so long as it ’ s not called Obamacare . In a separate YouGov poll ( pdf ), 49 percent of folks say they want a repeal , but 42 percent want an ACA expansion or to leave it be , and 13 percent aren ’ t sure .
Republicans , then , will make sure they re-engineer the law in such a way that makes it appear as if they created a new and improved health care regime . That ’ s an eye to a future White House bid when millennial votes will come in handy , since the 18- to 34-yearold crowd prefers Grey Goose plans despite Bud Lite budgets . And Republicans have little choice - or they risk facing the biggest political insurrection their party has seen since its founding . They ’ ll say they destroyed Obamacare and finally answered the belligerent calls of the Tea Party . They ’ ll act as if they introduced a fresh , new health care system built on state-managed “ grants ” rather than the ill-named “ subsidies ,” protections for pre-existing conditions and insurance for your largely underemployed kids until they ’ re 26 .
If those provisions already sound familiar , it ’ s because they ’ re already here , courtesy of President Obama . He will , of course , veto anything anti-ACA that Congress throws his way . But he can only veto so much without the risk of looking spectacularly unproductive while Republicans constantly dangle fiscal cliffs and government shutdowns in his face . In the end , a lonely president , pressed for meaning in his last two years , will take what he can get .
Charles D . Ellison is a veteran political strategist and regular contributor to The Root . He is also Washington correspondent for the Philadelphia Tribune and chief political correspondent for Uptown magazine . Follow him on Twitter .