News From the Chamber - FICCI
Survey Results : Part A
Projections – Key Economic Parameters
The latest round of FICCI ’ s Economic Outlook Survey puts forth an annual median GDP growth forecast for 2018-19 at 7.4 %. The estimate is in line with RBI ’ s GDP growth projection for the current fiscal year announced in its bi-monthly Monetary Policy statement in April 2018 .
According to survey results , the median growth forecast for agriculture and allied activities has been put at 3.2 % for 2018- 19 , with a minimum and maximum growth estimate of 2.6 % and 4.0 % respectively . Industry and services sector are expected to grow by 6.7 % and 8.4 % respectively during the year .
Further , the quarterly median forecasts indicate a GDP growth of 7.1 % in the fourth quarter of
2017-18 ; which takes the full year growth estimate for 2017-18 to 6.6 %. The growth numbers for 2017- 18 and CSO has also put across an advance annual estimate of 6.6 % for the last fiscal year .
Wholesale Price Index based inflation rate is projected at 3.5 % in 2018-19 , with a minimum and maximum range of 2.9 % and 3.9 % respectively . WPI based inflation stood at 2.9 % for the entire fiscal year 2017-18 .
Consumer Price Index has a median forecast of 4.6 % for 2018-19 , with a minimum and maximum range of 4.3 % and 5.0 % respectively . CPI based inflation was reported at 3.6 % in 2017-18 . CPI forecast for Q1 2018- 19 has been put at 5.1 % according to our survey results .
National Accounts
Annual ( 2018-19 ) Q4 2017-18 Q1 2018-19 Growth ( in %) Mediun Min Max Mediun Min Max Mediun Min Max
GDP @ market prices 7.4 6.9 7.5 7.1 6.8 7.4 7.3 7.0 7.4 GVA 2 basic prices 7.1 6.8 7.2 6.8 6.3 7.3 7.1 6.8 7.4
Agriculture & Allied Activities
3.2 2.6 4.0 3.0 2.0 4.2 3.0 2.9 3.9
Industry 6.7 4.6 7.0 6.5 4.5 7.5 6.8 6.3 7.7 Services 8.4 8.1 8.7 8.3 7.7 8.7 8.4 8.0 8.8
Survey Results : Part B
Views of the Economists
Protectionist tendencies are on rise globally and have the potential to impact global economic and trade growth going ahead . With fresh tariffs being imposed by the United States and retaliatory tariffs being introduced by China , the situation seems to be reaching a delicate ground .
Given this backdrop , economists were asked to share their prognosis on these recent global events and its possible impact on India .
The participating economists unanimously felt that the brewing trade war can impact India indirectly , if not directly , as the country is deeply integrated with global economy . A trade war between two major economies will further exacerbate geopolitical strains and could lead to a slowdown in world trade which can have recessionary effects on the global economy .
In fact , some of the most prominent economists across the world have compared the current situation to introduction of Smoot Hawley Tariff Act back in June 1930 . The Smoot- Hawley Tariff Act had led to imposition of import tariffs by the US on over 20 , 000 imported goods provoking retaliatory measures leading to a severe trade war and worsening of global depression .
14 August 2018