The latest round of FICCI ’ s Economic Outlook Survey puts forth an annual median GDP growth forecast for 2018-19 at 7.4 %, with a minimum and maximum range of 6.9 % and 7.5 % respectively .

The median growth forecast for agriculture and allied activities has been put at 3.2 % for 2018-19 . The Indian meteorological department has predicted a normal

monsoon season which bodes well for agricultural production during the year . Industry and services sector are expected to grow by 6.7 % and 8.4 % respectively in 2018-19 . Further , the quarterly median forecasts indicate a GDP growth of 7.1 % in the fourth quarter of 2017-18 ; which takes the full year growth estimate for 2017-18 to 6.6 %. The median growth forecast for IIP has been

put at 6.5 % for the year 2018-19 , with a minimum and maximum range of 5.0 % and 7.0 % respectively .

The outlook of the participating economists on inflation remained moderate . The median forecast for Wholesale Price Index based inflation rate for 2018-19 has been put at 3.5 %, with a minimum and maximum range of 2.9 % and 3.9 % respectively . The

Consumer Price Index has a median forecast of 4.6 % for 2018-19 , with a minimum and maximum range of 4.3 % and 5.0 % respectively .

Some concerns are visible on external front with median current account deficit forecast pegged at 2.1 % of GDP for 2018-19 . Merchandise exports are expected to grow by 9.4 % while imports are expected to grow by 11.0 % during the year .

Views of economists on key topical issues

• The participating economists unanimously felt that brewing trade war can impact India indirectly , if not directly , as the country is deeply integrated with global economy .

• A trade war between two major economies will further exacerbate geopolitical strains and could lead to a slowdown in world trade which can have recessionary effects on the global economy .

• Economists opined that exports are likely to bear the brunt and export-oriented industries particularly MSMEs in sectors like iron and steel , machinery and metal products , chemicals and agricultural goods are likely to take a hit . There are possibilities of an unexpected interruption in the global supply chain .

• Participating economists were of the view that more than the absolute results of trade war , the prevailing uncertainties might cause market disruptions and negatively impact the overall sentiment .

• On the positive side , however , the looming trade war has the potential to open up new avenues for India .

• India should focus on deeper engagement with its key trading partners to insulate itself from the impact of protectionist policies .

12 August 2018

PROBIZ International - Vol-1 Probiz File final | Page 12

News From the Chamber - FICCI

GDP growth estimated at 7.1 % for Q4 of 2017-18 and 7.4 % in 2018-19 : Reveals FICCI ’ s Economic Outlook Survey

The latest round of FICCI ’ s Economic Outlook Survey puts forth an annual median GDP growth forecast for 2018-19 at 7.4 %, with a minimum and maximum range of 6.9 % and 7.5 % respectively .