Start with global warming. Seventeen of the past nineteen years have been the hottest on record, 2 degrees Fahrenheit higher on average than at the start of the 19th century. If this trend continues, it will cause ever-increasing mischief to our agricultural systems. The disappearance of mountain glaciers and winter snow packs, a process already well underway, will drastically reduce vital river runoff and with it the water resources that two-thirds of the human species depends on for farming and other needs. Heat waves will also decimate livestock and our crops. For instance, the months-long heat wave in western Russia in 2010 destroyed 40% of that country’s grain crops and led to a temporary tripling of world grain prices. Several European countries also experienced crop losses from the prolonged drought and heat wave in the summer of 2018.
Our commercial food crops are also very fragile. One study by an international research institute found that for every degree Celsius above the nominal average growing temperature there is a 10% decline in the yields of wheat, rice, and corn. Another study, in India, found that a 2-degree Celsius increase reduced wheat yields in different locations by 37-58%. Especially troubling is the recent discovery that increasing atmospheric CO2 levels reduces the nutritional value of rice, the main staple food for 2 billion people. More frequent and destructive droughts, storms, and wild fires – a trend already well advanced -- will also disrupt food production in many ways and cause many trillions of dollars in damage over time. Ocean warming and acidification (not to mention the effects of pollution) will severely harm the ocean food chain and threaten what is now about 17% of the protein supply for humankind, according to the U.N.’s Food and Agriculture Organization. Most of the world’s fisheries have already been maxed out and some are in steep decline.
We are also running a serious deficit in the rate of water consumption. Most disturbing is the rapid draw-down of underground aquifers around the world. Some of them can be recharged over time, but many others cannot. According to a 2005 U.N. study, at least 15 major countries with half the world’s population – including the U.S., China, India, Pakistan, Iran, Mexico and several Middle Eastern countries – are running large water deficits and their water tables are rapidly declining. A more recent NASA study, using satellite data, indicated that 21 of the world’s 37 largest aquifers are seriously depleted. For instance, the huge Ogallala aquifer that spans portions of eight states in the American southwest and provides irrigation water for some 27% of U.S agricultural production, may be drained by 2028, according to a recent estimate. Even more alarming, a new government report in India concluded that 600 million of its people even now face extreme water scarcity, with 200,000 dying each year from unsafe or insufficient water. By 2030, the report estimated that the country’s total demand will be twice the available supply.