Poverty , Peace , and China : PKSOI and World Bank Perspectives
pksoi . army . mil 3
Poverty , Peace , and China : PKSOI and World Bank Perspectives
In addition , political movements obtain financing from criminal activities , as in the Democratic Republic of Congo and Northern Ireland . Criminal gangs often support political violence during electoral periods , as in Jamaica and Kenya . International ideological movements make common cause with local grievances , as in Afghanistan and Pakistan . Social grievances can escalate into acute demands for change and into violent conflict — as we have seen in the Middle East and North Africa where political , social , and economic change lags behind mostly urban-based expectations . Thus , the large majority of countries currently wracked with violence face it in multiple forms .
Pinker ’ s assertion about peace is encouraging . He has associated this trend toward peace with ( 1 ) the emergence of strong governmental authority claiming a monopoly on the use of force ; ( 2 ) the interconnectivity of cultures through trade ; ( 3 ) increased literacy , urbanization , mobility and access to mass media ; and ( 4 ) the spread of democracy and intergovernmental organization . 12 We may add , too , that recent U . S . interventions to reverse aggression by force in Kuwait and Afghanistan have also played a role in establishing the “ new peace ,” albeit one that remains fragile .
Interstate war and insurgency remain threats in some regions but have declined appreciably over the past twenty-five years . Deaths from civil war are one-quarter what they were in the 1980s . 13 Nonetheless , one in four people on the planet , more than 1.5 billion , live in FCACs with very high levels of criminal violence . Because of the decline in interstate war , the remaining forms of conflict and violence do not fit neatly either into “ war ” or “ peace ,” or even clearly into “ criminal or political violence ” but rather are blended categories .
Vicious Cycles
Many FCACs now face cycles of violence , weak governance , and instability . This cycle appears to be self-supporting , vicious , and repetitive : 90 percent of the past decade ’ s civil wars occurred in countries that already had a civil war in the past thirty years . In addition , some countries that successfully negotiated political and peace agreements , such as El Salvador , Guatemala , and South Africa , currently face high levels of violent crime , limiting their development . Paradoxically , other countries such as Zimbabwe – blessed with natural resources such as diamonds and strategic minerals – appear trapped in vicious “ winner-takes-all ” struggles as domestic groups periodically vie for control over the resources . 14
Given this backdrop , no low-income FCAC has yet achieved a single UN Milliennium Development Goal ( MDG ) including the “ poverty-halving ” one . Poverty appears to be a clear impediment to stability in most FCACs . In fact , most of the current armed conflict in FCACs has taken the form of looting , extortion , reprisal , and rampage by gangs of otherwise unemployable young men serving politicians , warlords , and / or criminal kingpins . In many cases , political leaders deliberately leave parts of their countries largely unconnected with established or more urbanized regions and thus abandon them to relative anarchy , inviting further predation and warlord-driven conflict . 15
As a result , the correlation between poverty and armed conflict in the world today seems clear . Countries with a per capita GDP under $ 1,195 have a 3 percent probability of new conflict breaking out within five years , and this rate rises appreciably as income drops , according to the Human Security Center in the UK . This correlation is much stronger in countries with large populations , mountainous terrain , and new or fragile government . In a 2003 study , Fearon and Laitin found that $ 1,000 less in per capita income corresponds to a 34 percent greater chance of civil strife in the former colonies of Africa , Middle East , and Asia . Surprisingly , income inequality , ethnic diversity , and minority discrimination were not significantly correlated with conflict although large proportions of young unemployed males appear to be a significant factor enabling conflict . 16
How can FCACs embark on a path to sustainable development ?
The World Bank ’ s central message in its 2011 World Development Report on Conflict , Security and Development is that strengthening legitimate institutions and governance addresses FCAC instability by focusing on security , justice , and jobs . 17 The report points out that the process of restoring confidence and building institutions requires strong national leadership with support from international actors to help manage stresses
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