The slowdown in the growth of the British economy began to be felt in the first half of 2017. Uncertainty over the Brexit negotiations, the devaluation of the pound sterling and rising inflation helped to curb the investment of British economic agents and reduced the purchasing power of households. On the other hand, currency devaluation favored exporters and the tourism sector.
According to the EIU, the perspectives for the UK economy in the short / medium term points to:
* GDP growth of 1.6% in 2017, 1.5% in 2018 and 1.4% in 2019;
* Private consumption growth is expected to be + 1.6% in 2017 and + 1% in 2018, while public consumption will increase by 0.5% in 2017 and 1.3% in 2018;
* Exports of goods and services may grow, in real terms, 4.5% in 2017 and 3.4% in 2018, while imports are expected to increase by 3.8% and 2%, respectively;
* The public sector deficit is expected to worsen in 2017-2018, reaching 3.3%. The public debt / GDP ratio will continue to rise to around 89.4% of GDP in 2017 and 90.9% in 2018;
* Unemployment will tend to remain low in 2018 (around 4.5% of the working age population).
* The inflation rate is expected to increase to 2.7% in 2017 and 2.3% in 2018 (after 1% in 2016 and 0.4% in 2015).
INTERNATIONAL TRADE
The United Kingdom, as an exporter, ranked 10th in the world in 2016, accounting for 2.6% of merchandise trade. As an importer, this country has assumed a more important role, being the 4th largest importer in the world, accounting for 3.9% of the total.
In the period from January to September 2017, British goods exports increased by 9% (+ 7% for EU markets and + 10% for non-EU markets). On the other hand, imports of goods fell by 2% year-on-year (imports from the EU grew by only 1%, while non-EU imports decreased by 6%).
The EIU forecasts for 2017 and 2018 point to an increase in imports of goods in the order of 5.2% in 2017 and 2.5% in 2018; for exports of goods, it is expected to grow by 7.7% in 2017 and 4.3% in 2018.
The United States, Germany, France, the Netherlands and Ireland are the UK's top 5 customers with 44% of British goods exports.
According to the International Trade Center (ITC), Portugal was the 31st customer in the United Kingdom, accounting for 0.5% of total British exports in 2016. Sales from the United Kingdom to Portugal increased by 14% in 2016 over the previous year.
About 52% of UK imports in 2016 came from EU markets and 48% from Extra EU markets. On the other hand, about 53% of the UK's exports in 2016 were destined for the Extra-EU markets and 47% for the EU.
Germany, China, the US, the Netherlands and France accounted for about 45% of the total imports by the United Kingdom in 2016. The largest increases were recorded in imports from the Netherlands and the USA (+ 12% and +11 respectively), followed by China (+ 7%), Germany and France (+ 5% each).
Portugal has a modest position as supplier, occupying the 30th place in 2016, with 0.6% of the total imported by this market, although purchases to our country increased 13% over the previous year (according to ITC).
The five main groups of products exported by the United Kingdom were machines and mechanical appliances; motor vehicles; pharmaceutical products; pearls, precious stones and metals; machines and electrical appliances, concentrating 49% of total sales in 2016.
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MERCADO / MARKET
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