Popular Culture Review Vol. 16, No. 2, Summer 2005 | Page 35

Risk-as-Pleasure 31 harms must be combined into a believable scenario combining risk, regret, and reward probabilities into expected value. However, there are many informal methods which are used to assess risk or to “measure” it although it is not usually possible to directly measure a concept. Risk is Not the Same as Threat In scenario analysis “risk” is distinct from “threat.” “Threat” refers to a very low-probability but high-impact event which cannot typically be assigned a probability in a risk assessment because it has never occurred and for which no effective preventive measure is available. The difference is most clearly illustrated by the precautionary principle which seeks to reduce threat by requiring it to be reduced to a set of well-defined risks before an action, project, innovation, or experiment is allowed to proceed. A more specific example is the preparedness of the United States of America prior to the devastating attack on September 11^^, 2001. Although the Central IntelUgence Agency had often warned of a “clear and present danger” of planes being used as a weapon, this was considered a threat not a risk. Accordingly, no comprehensive scenarios of probabilities and counter-measures were ever prepared for the type of attack that occurred. In general, a threat cannot be characterized as a risk without at least one specific incident wherein the threat can be said to have “realized.” From that point, there it at least some basis to characterize a probability, e.g. “in the entire history of air travel, X flights have led to 1 incident o f . . . ” Professions and Governments Manage Risk Means of measuring and assessing risk vary widely across different professions; indeed, means of doing so may define different professions, e.g. a doctor manages medical risk, a civil engineer manages risk of structural failure, etc. A professional code of ethics is usually focused on risk assessment and mitigation (by the professional on behalf of client, public, society, or life in general). Some theorists of political science, notably Carol Moore and Jane Jacobs, emphasize that smaller political units and careful separation of the roles of regulator and trader can improve professional ethics and subordinate them to uniform risk limits that would apply to a particular locale, e.g. an entire urban area. The political ideal of bioregional democracy arose in part in response to these ideals, and created the problem of professional jargons and associations alienating power from real people living in real places. “A profession by definition is in a conflict of interest with respect to the risk passed on to its clients.” —Steven Rapaport