Policy Brief_Uzbekistan Towards 2030: A New Social Protection Model f bunxjnse pwvc en 9 | Page 7

Uzbekistan Towards 2030: A New Social Protection Model for a Changing Economy and Society
Figure 7. The highest multiplier effects on demand and
supply are provided by chemical, mechanical engineering,
transportation, electric power and oil production industries
Figure 8. The highest multiplier effects on employment are
provided by the chemical, mechanical engineering, housing and
utilities, transportation, trade and communications industries
3) Social allowances do not provide sufficient incentives and opportuni-
ties for recipients to move up the income scale. In particular, according to a
survey, current social allowances mainly have demotivating effects, and - due
to the form of providing the allowances as well as the lack of linkages with
employment policies are not efficient enough in opening up opportunities for
recipients to become active contributors to and protagonists of social trans-
formation processes.
Taking into account anticipated demographic trends (population growth,
changes in the social and sex/age structure) in the event that the anticipated
transformations of the economy are not implemented, the preservation of the
current social protection model could considerably increase the financial bur-
den on the budget and threaten fiscal stability. With the current social protec-
tion system, and limited opportunities to accelerate transformative processes
in the economy and society, the cost of social allowances in the state budget
will increase from 5.7% in 2012 to 6.7% in 2030. This may complicate fulfill-
ment of the main functions of social protection and guarantee of social rights
in the future.
Generation of productive
employment in industries
with large multiplier
effects will contribute
to the sustainability of
social protection
Estimates made in the paper “Employment in
Uzbekistan: challenges and prospects,” 2013/05,
CER
3
In order to reduce this risk, the social protection system should continue to
provide a safety net for those who face a sudden change in circumstances or
who are incapable of supporting themselves; but also have a clear shift in focus
towards more promotive measures that could have considerable multiplier ef-
fects in terms of accelerating reform processes in the economy and society.
The new social protection model will not only have to re-design its protec-
tive functions but also develop new instruments to help the vulnerable acquire
the capabilities to allow them to access new opportunities. This would include
mechanisms to involve vulnerable groups in more formal and rewarding eco-
nomic activity and to move up the income scale, thereby shaping new values
and ideals and transforming society in line with current and future economic,
political and institutional transformations.
This would require an expansion of the conceptual framework of social pro-
tection to be strongly linked with labor market policies, reforms in the educa-
7
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© UNDP, 2014 (www.undp.org)
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