SPECIAL FEATURE
Article by Tarrin Kittipanachon
T
Thailand’s
Aging Population
Will Hamper its
Economic
Development
hailand’s twin demographic and economic squeeze makes
it an outlier among ASEAN countries that are growing
rapidly as they shift from being low-income economies
with the support of foreign direct investment and a large young
and active labor force. The latter in particular is of great concern.
This year, the UN revealed that Thailand’s birthrate is merely 1.5
babies per woman, below China’s 1.7, and well below replace-
ment rate (2.1 births). With no improvement, the country will lit-
erally lose its population by a third (34.1%) by 2100.
Although Thailand’s population of
nearly 70 million people is con-
siderably smaller than Vietnam
and Indonesia, it is grouped as
one of the world’s large countries,
with a middle-income status held
back by waves of political prob-
lems. These issues may finally
ease with a newly elected gov-
ernment this year which is draw-
ing back global investors.
However, the country’s underly-
ing problem of a rapidly aging
population is unlikely to reverse
given rising costs of living which
may result in unexpectedly vast
numbers of impoverished senior
citizens and ever dwindling num-
bers of young people. Stanford
University demographer Shripad
12 PharMed & HealthCare
Tuljapurkar said the tipping point
to push for change is before the
mid-2030s when the number of
retirees will jump dramatically,
resulting in fewer taxpayers and
consumers, and higher demand
for caretakers.
Thailand’s birth rate is on par with
Switzerland and Finland, two
wealthy countries with a per cap-
ita income of $78,816 and
$48,580 respectively, compared
to its per capita income of mere-
ly $6,362. In terms of its econo-
my, Thailand mirrors Japan with
its low interest and inflation rates,
a strong currency, and consis-
tently low single digit growth rates
since the Asian financial crisis in
1997.
SEPTEMBER 2019