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to facilitate the RSA–DRC treaty on the Inga Hydropower
Project. The project is key to energising and unlocking
regional industrialisation.
The utilisation of the existing PV, wind, and gas
allocations in the plan to enable, through ministerial
determinations, renewable energy technologies
identified and endorsed for localisation and promotion.
Technologies as contained in the plan are therefore a
proxy for technologies that provide similar technical
characteristics at similar or less cost to the system.
The allocations of 200MW per annum for certain
categories of generation-for-own-use of between 1MW
and 10MW, starting in 2018. These allocations will not
be discounted off the capacity allocations in the plan
but will be considered during the issuing of ministerial
determinations. This will help address requests for
deviations from the IRP for qualifying plants.
The policy-adjusted plan therefore includes the following new
additional capacity by 2030: 1 000MW of generation from
coal, 2 500MW from hydro, 5 670MW from PV, 8 100MW
from wind, and 8 100MW from gas. The resultant installed
capacity mix in year 2030 consist of:
• Coal with 34 000 megawatts, which is 46% of total
installed capacity
• Nuclear with 1 860 megawatts, which is 2.5%
• Hydro with 4 696 megawatts, which is 6%
• Pump storage with 2 912 megawatts, which is 4%
• PV with 7 958 megawatts, which is 10%
• Wind with 11 442 megawatts, which is 15%
• CSP with 600 megawatts, which is 1%
• Gas with 11 930 megawatts, which is 16%.
It must be noted that while the coal installed capacity will
be lower than current installed base, it will still contribute
more than 65% of the energy volumes, with nuclear
contributing about 4%.
A closer monitoring of the IRP update assumptions by the
Department through the Medium-Term System Adequacy
Outlook filed with NERSA annually by Eskom’s System
Operator, will ensure we are alive to the prevailing supply
and demand balance and we can accelerate or decelerate
implementation if necessary, or even revise the plan timeously.
In conclusion, there are a number of implementation issues
brought about by the changing electricity industry that we
will also have to look at in detail outside of the IRP update
process. These include levels of participation of previously
marginalised South Africans in the energy sector; the
structure of the industry, taking into account that electricity
demand is no longer total captive to the national grid; and the
sustainability of licenced electricity distributors.
We therefore appeal to the public and the stakeholders
to engage with the report we are publishing, with the
understanding that a ‘just transition’ requires that while we
move with speed to respond to the changing landscape, we
take calculated steps to ensure we leave no one behind. PA
November 2018 Volume 24 I Number 9