13
The Department started with the IRP review and update
process in 2015. The review and update process had
four milestones and they are:
1. The development of the Input Assumptions;
2. The modelling of a reference case or base case and
scenario cases, including analysis of results;
3. The production of balanced scenario; and
4. Policy adjustment taking into account government
priorities, policies, and commitments.
Following Cabinet approval in November 2016, the
Department then published for public consultation on the
assumptions. A preliminary base case or reference case
was also published, but for information.
Key comments received from those consultations
were mainly on the consultation process, the projected
electricity demand, assumed technology costs, as well as
imposing of annual build limits on renewable technologies.
• The electricity demand forecast published then was
said to be outdated and not aligned to the prevailing
economic conditions. The demand forecast was
revised accordingly, and a detailed report is
available on the website of the Department.
• The technology costs used in the plan have also
been updated accordingly.
The Department spent the period after consultations
modelling and analysing the various scenarios and
their impact on the energy mix going into the future.
Scenarios were analysed in line with the objectives of
the IRP, which is to provide an electricity infrastructure
plan that aims to ensure security of supply while
minimising cost of supply, water usage, and
environmental impacts.
The scenarios tested include:
• The electricity demand scenario, which tested the
impact of varying electricity demand projections;
• The gas scenario, which tested the sensitivity of the
plan to the assumed gas price projections;
• The renewables scenario, which tested the impact
of removing annual build limits placed on the
renewable technologies; and
• The emissions constrain scenario, which tested the
impact of using a carbon budget approach to constrain
emissions from electricity generation compared to an
annual ceiling like with peak plateau decline.
At a high level, the review of the IRP undertaken
indicates the following:
•
•
•
•
That the pace and scale of new capacity
developments needed up to year 2030 must be
curtailed compared to what was projected in the
IRP 2010.
Without a policy intervention, some of the
technologies in the IRP 2010, together with new
technologies, will not be deployed, as the ‘least
cost’ plan contains PV, wind, and gas only;
Imposing annual build limits on renewables does
not impact the total installed capacity of renewable
energy technology for the period up to 2030; and
There is significant change in the energy mix post
2030, which is mainly driven by decommissioning
of old coal power plants that reach their end of life.
While the IRP review considered a period up to year
2050, the approach taken in the draft updated IRP is to
adopt a plan for the period ending 2030 and for detailed
studies and engagements to be undertaken to better
inform the energy mix or path post 2030.
•
to, with most of the capacity already connected to
the grid and the rest to be realised between now
and the year 2022.
The cost of new generation technologies has
significantly come down and this can be seen in
the costs of wind and PV, based on the projects
procured to date.
Jeff Radebe, Minister of Energy.
This approach we believe provides the necessary policy
certainty while creating the space for all of us to engage
in detail on the impending energy transition and the
options available to us as South Africa. The engagements
will ensure that the transition we undertake is a ‘just
transition’ and is inclusive.
Some of the studies we have identified already include:
• Detailed socio-economic impact analysis of the
decommissioning of old coal-fired power plants that
would have reached their end of life;
• Detailed analysis of gas supply options (international
and local) to better understand the technical
and financial risks and required mitigations for a
renewable energy and gas-dominated electricity
generation mix post 2030;
• Detailed analysis of the appropriate level of
penetration of renewable energy in the South
African national grid to better understand the
technical risks and mitigations required to ensure
that security of supply is maintained during the
transition to a low carbon future; and
• Detailed technical, cost, and economic benefit
analysis of other clean energy technologies, such as
clean coal technology, nuclear, and others.
The recommended plan uses the least-cost plan
as starting point. The least-cost plan being a plan
without renewable energy constraints. The following
policy adjustments have been incorporated into the
recommended plan for the period up to 2030:
• The retention of annual build limits for the period up
to 2030. This provides for consistent and sustained
roll-out of renewable energy for the period.
• The inclusion of 1 000MW of coal-to-power in
2023–2024, based on two already procured and
announced projects.
• The inclusion of 2 500MW of hydropower in 2030
"Increasing
electricity prices
have also made
substitutes such
as LP gas a viable
alternative for
cooking and
heating."
Continued on page 15 >>
www.plumbingafrica.co.za
November 2018 Volume 24 I Number 9