Case Study # 0517-02 PKSOI TRENDS GLOBAL CASE STUDY SERIES
see remaining close to Russia as beneficial . Russia , as the dominant power within the Soviet Union , calls the former Soviet states its “ near abroad ” 24 and considers these former Soviet countries to be in its “ sphere of influence .”
Several conflicts between the two countries concerning the use , price and transportation of natural gas have simmered for years . The vast majority of Russian gas exports into the EU are transported through Ukraine and allegations of Ukraine using gas domestically instead of passing it on to other European countries resulted in Russia temporarily shutting off all gas supplies into Ukraine . Disagreements on Ukrainian debt and dependency on Russian gas have kept this conflict alive . 25
A proposed Association Agreement between Ukraine and the EU in November 2013 intended to deepen economic and political ties appeared to cross a Russian redline , as evidenced by Ukraine suddenly signing an “ action plan ” with Russia instead a few weeks later that gave Ukraine preferential natural gas prices and a $ 15 billion loan , but what Ukraine offered in return is unclear . Despite Russia ’ s discontent with its deepening ties with the EU , Ukraine seemed to have been surprised by Russia ’ s stance on the issue , including its taking over Crimea and its significant covert and moral support for the separatist uprisings that began in April 2014 .
Kyiv struggled to identify acceptable ways to change Moscow ’ s calculus and regain Ukrainian sovereignty and territorial integrity . Its primary demand as of mid-2016 was for the “ full and immediate ceasefire ” called for under the two Minsk Agreements to take hold ; then it could arrange for local elections to be held in the Luhansk and Donetsk Oblasts . 26
As noted above , leaders of both separatist movements claimed in 2014 after conducting status referenda that the vast majority of voters were in favor of establishing separate republics . 27 While the Ukrainian Government opposed both separatist movements and Russia had shown support for both self-declared republics , Minsk II laid out a clear plan of action that representatives of all parties had initially agreed to . According to the agreement , the Luhansk and Donetsk Oblasts would be reintegrated into Ukraine in exchange for a special self-governing status by late 2015 . As of May 2017 , the Ukrainian parliament had not voted on the constitutional reform to allow for such special status , and reports of an ongoing ‘ Russianization ’ in Luhansk and Donetsk Oblasts , from the changing of license plates to widespread use of Russian currency , 28 raise questions as to whether the reintegration of the two regions into Ukraine is feasible in the long run .
CHRONOLOGY — WHY WE ARE WHERE WE ARE :
Ukraine was part of the Soviet Union from 1922 as one of 15 constituent republics until its breakup in 1991 . Ukraine claimed independence from the Soviet Union on 24 August 1991 as the Republic of Ukraine but only ratified its new Constitution in 1996 . 29 On 5 December 1994 , Russia , the United Kingdom ( UK ), the United States , Ukraine , Belarus , and Kazakhstan signed the Budapest Memorandum on Security Assurances . 30 In exchange for Ukraine , Belarus and Kazakhstan giving up their nuclear weapons ( transferring them to Russia ), the three obtained politically binding security guarantees from Russia , the UK and United States against the threat or use of force against their territorial integrity and political independence . While Russian military incursions into Ukraine have violated the Budapest Memorandum , its guarantees were only politically , not legally , binding .
In the immediate aftermath of the 2004 Ukrainian Presidential election , the so-called Orange Revolution took place . Protestors claimed voter intimidation , corruption , and electoral fraud to ensure pro-Russian candidate and former governor of Donetsk Oblast Viktor Yanukovych ’ s win . 31 Civil disobedience and general strikes eventually led to annulment of the results and the Ukrainian Supreme Court ordered a revote for late December . Widely known as being pro-EU , former Ukrainian National Bank Governor and informal opposition leader Viktor Yushchenko won the re-election with 52 % of the vote . Domestic and international observers declared the revote “ fair and free ” and Yushchenko was inaugurated on 23 January 2005 . 32