Case Study # 0517-02 PKSOI TRENDS GLOBAL CASE STUDY SERIES
Looking back , in March 2014 , following a Russian-sponsored referendum on joining Russia , Russian President Putin signed a bill to incorporate Crimea into the Russian Federation . The referendum appeared to be almost unanimous : according to organizers of the election , 97 % of voters in Crimea elected to secede from Ukraine and re-join Russia . 11 However , the vote was considered a sham by many Western countries . 12
Immediately afterwards , in protest of the pro-European stance of the Ukrainian Government , inspired by the referendum in Crimea , and infiltrated by Russian intelligence officers , 13 pro-Russian groups began to engage in armed conflict in Luhansk and Donetsk . In April , Ukraine launched military operations against these Russian-backed separatists in eastern Ukraine . After referenda unrecognized by the Ukrainian government were held in Luhansk and Donetsk , the pro-Russian separatists declared independence in both regions in May 2014 . 14 However , within two hours of counting the votes , the leader of the newly minted “ Donetsk People ’ s Republic ” asked to join Russia , muddying the true goals of the separatists .
Ukraine intensified its military offensives in the east of the country against an estimated 30,000 partisans , organized into BTGs and independent brigades . 15 In July , Malaysian Airlines flight MH17 was shot down , leaving 298 dead , primarily Dutch and Australian citizens , and drawing international attention to the conflict in eastern Ukraine . Dutch and Australian experts led an international investigation into the shoot-down that led them to conclude that the air defense weapons system used was Russian . 16
By late July , the EU and U . S . announced economic sanctions against Russia , but , undeterred , three weeks later Russia was reported to send substantial “ humanitarian aid ” to Luhansk without Ukrainian approval .
Reports of hostages , prisoner exchanges , Russian military equipment secretly entering Ukraine and Ukrainian use of cluster bombs in Donetsk surfaced in the following months . 17
By March 2015 , the UN estimated that 6,000 people had been killed in eastern Ukraine as a direct result of violations of the Minsk agreements . Ukrainian authorities registered 1.6 million internally displaced persons ( IDPs ) and the UN reported 900,000 refugees departing Ukraine in 2014-15 . While the UN reported 750,000 of them went to Russia , the Russian Federal Migration Service claimed 2 million Ukrainians had fled to Russia in that time period . 18 It is unclear what the actual number of refugees was during that time period , but Russia ’ s numbers made it look more sympathetic to eastern Ukrainians .
Despite international efforts to facilitate the two Minsk talks and to provide assistance in the implementation of the agreements , representatives of Western countries remained critical of the situation and voiced concern regarding the actual progress towards a peaceful resolution of the conflict . Crucial aspects of Minsk I and II had yet to be implemented . According to then German Foreign Minister Frank-Walter Steinmeier , both parties seemed unwilling to compromise , as his statement issued on 14 August 2016 showed :
”… it is incumbent upon both sides to continue working to implement the Minsk agreements . No one can be satisfied with the results to date . We are stuck at this point . For weeks now , we have been working on a framework agreement aimed at easing the tensions between the two parties to the conflict . It has not been possible to reach agreement so far , as neither side is willing to compromise . Despite intensive endeavours , there has been no tangible progress either as regards improving the security situation in eastern Ukraine or on reaching the necessary consensus on local elections .” 19
Other Western leaders took a clearer stance and made Russia ’ s continuous military involvement responsible for the ongoing conflict . The U . S . Mission to the OSCE issued a statement on May 26 , 2016 , saying :