Case Study # 0517-02 PKSOI TRENDS GLOBAL CASE STUDY SERIES
“ CONTROLLING UKRAINE ” THE EU AND RUSSIA IN UKRAINE
“ Ukraine is … a sitting duck , a road apple , it ’ s weak , Newman , it ’ s feeble . I think it ’ s time to put the hurt on the Ukraine !” Kramer in “ Seinfeld ” Season Six , Episode 12 , “ The Label Maker ” https :// www . youtube . com / watch ? v = fzLtF _ PxbYw
On 17 July 2014 in Donetsk Oblast near the Russian border , Malaysian Airlines Flight MH17 flying from Amsterdam to Kuala Lumpur was hit by a surface-to-air missile at an altitude of 10,000 meters ( 33,000 ft ) and crashed . A Dutchled international investigation concluded in the fall of 2016 that the missile that shot down MH17 was a Russian “ Buk ” model ; the truck carrying the Buk weapons system was seen entering Ukraine over the Russian border the night before and returning to Russia that night . 1 CNN reported a recording that day by pro-Russian separatists gleefully reporting that they had destroyed their target . 2 The recording soon disappeared , once it became clear what the “ target ” turned out to be : a civilian airliner , and not a Ukrainian fighter jet .
“ There are no armed forces , no Russian ‘ instructors ’ in south-eastern Ukraine . And there were never any .” Vladimir Putin , Russian President , 4 June 2014 3
“ The Russian Federation yesterday again claimed that they wanted disengagement . They even asked that the [ Special ] Monitoring Mission ( SMM ), spend more time monitoring on both sides of the Line of Contact . But on the ground we see a very different picture . We see continued resupply of weapons and fighters . We see continued provocations to keep the conflict going . We see continued restrictions of the SMM and its monitors . We see continued shoot-downs of SMM UAVs after they ’ ve seen Russian weaponry , heavy weapons in areas where it shouldn ’ t be .”
Daniel Baer , U . S . Ambassador to the OSCE , 29 July 2016 4
The internationally unrecognized annexation of Crimea from Ukraine to Russia in March 2014 and the beginning of fighting in the Luhansk and Donetsk Oblasts ( regions ) in April 2014 caused the international community to pay close attention to Ukraine . The formation of the Trilateral Contact group consisting of representatives of Russia , Ukraine and the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe ( OSCE ), resulted in the conflict parties signing a deal , known as Minsk I , to end the crisis in Ukraine in September 2014 . Minsk I soon broke down and hostilities were on the rise again . After 16 hours of negotiations between Russian President Vladimir Putin , Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko , French President Francois Hollande and German Chancellor Angela Merkel , a detailed plan for implementing Minsk I was signed on February 12 , 2015 . Known as Minsk II , the 13-point plan includes agreements for immediate ceasefire , withdrawal of heavy weapons from the front lines under OSCE SMM monitoring , prisoner exchanges , local elections and safe delivery of humanitarian aid . Despite these commitments , Ukraine today remains politically destabilized by civil war , its economy is in tatters , and its territorial integrity is severely compromised . As of spring 2017 , “ little green men ” 5 ( Russian soldiers wearing uniforms without insignia ) continue to fight with pro-Russian separatists against the Ukrainian government in Eastern