PKSOI/GLOBAL TRENDS CASE STUDIES A Drone's Strike Away | Page 7

Case Study #1118-08
PKSOI TRENDS GLOBAL CASE STUDY SERIES
It’s not just about a fancy camera and about the data, but it’s also about how the technology can be used as force mul-
tipliers,” adds Brett Velicovich, a former military intelligence soldier who consults on drone adoption. “If the roads are
down and there aren’t enough helicopters out there, we should be using drones to do the work. This is not sci-fi technol-
ogy. It exists now.” 39 For instance, Nautilus, a Richmond, CA-based startup, is “developing an amphibious drone the size
of a Boeing 777 that can haul as much as 200,000 pounds of cargo, taking off from an airport and pulling into a port.
The company is now testing a 30-foot prototype that can carry 700 pounds, which itself would be a perfectly useful load
in a crisis. Even the smallest of loads can be accommodated: A company called Zipline has launched a drone service in
Rwanda, Tanzania, and Switzerland, delivering blood supplies and medicine.” 40
Combat Drones
Revolution in (automated) Military Affairs
When the US launched Operation Iraq Freedom in 2003, there were only a handful of aerial drones in the invasion
force. By 2010 the Pentagon had nearly 7,500 drones in its arsenal and in 2018, almost one in three US military aircraft
flies without a pilot. 41 Indeed, drones are the latest manifestation of the so-called “revolution in military affairs (RMA)”
that started more than two decades ago. The RMA signaled the rapidly increasing substitution of technological advances
in warfare in place of boots-on-the-ground. American combat effectiveness during the first Gulf War already foreshad-
owed a future where the US military “could strike anywhere with force, precision, and relative safety, its enemies elec-
tronically confused into submission with little of warfare’s normal collateral destruction.” 42 In his infamous speech to
Pentagon staff the day before the 9/11 attacks, then Secretary of Defense Donald Rumsfeld explained,
In this period of limited funds, we need every nickel, every good idea, every innovation, every effort to help
modernize and transform the US military. We must change for a simple reason — the world has — and we
have not yet changed sufficiently. The clearest and most important transformation is from a bipolar Cold War
world where threats were visible and predictable, to one in which they arise from multiple sources, most of
which are difficult to anticipate, and many of which are impossible even to know today. 43
To meet the challenges of the contemporary strategic environment, Joint Vision 2020 advocated achieving “full spec-
trum dominance,” i.e., the ability “to defeat any adversary and control any situation across the full range of military
operations,” which also included “those ambiguous situations residing between peace and war, such as peacekeeping and
peace enforcement operations, as well as noncombat humanitarian relief operations and support to domestic authori-
ties.” 44
The Predator and the Reaper
Combat drones are designed to be surgically precise tools “that make the world a safer place by enabling targeted kill-
ings of so-called terrorists without collateral damage.” 45 The two most widely used attack drones are the MQ-1 Preda-
tor (which the US military ceased purchasing in February 2011) and the upgraded MQ-9 Reaper, both developed by
military contractor General Atomics Aeronautical Systems. As Michael Perry, Vice President for Mission Systems at
GA-ASI, explains, “[y]ou would have a capability for close-air support, aircraft defense, counter-air, and even some types
of non-lethal actions. You would really be expanding the mission space… The focus at this point is principally defensive
missions.” 46
The Predator and Reaper are famous for their ability to hover thousands of feet above a target for hours and relay
high-resolution live surveillance. 47 The Reaper is powered by a 900 hp turboprop engine with a maximum speed of
276 miles per hour. It has a wingspan of 66 feet, is 36 feet long, 12.5 feet high, carries a maximum payload of 3,850
pounds, and can be armed with a variety of weapons, including up to 14 missiles or a combination of four missiles and
two laser-guided bombs. With a range of 3,682 miles, an operational altitude of 50,000 ft. and a maximum flight time
of 27 hours, 48 the Reaper carries approximately 15 times the amount of ordnance payload of the Predator, and cruises at
nearly three times the speed. 49
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