Insights
Life in the first-strike community
The struggle over Micronesia has barely started . China ’ s initiatives in the broader Pacific region , naval presence near Guahan and provocative behavior in the Taiwan straits have added up to a heightened level of China-triggered anxiety in the island and the region .
The sentiment is palpable and exacerbated by currently circulating fake videos about a failed Chinese attack on Guam . This is in addition to the yearold video of the Guam Killer Chinese missile ( DF-26 ) and another older video supposedly showing a Chinese Air Force plane attacking Andersen Air Force Base .
After typhoon Mawar , a neighbor dropped by to tell me that this is a prelude to the kind of destruction we face in a future conflict with China . We need to “ harden ” in order to deal with future disasters – natural or manmade . This is reflected in the discussion about “ hardening ” everything from power poles , to underground infrastructure and , of course , the island ’ s “ defense ” against Chinese attacks .
For some it seems seamless , but , in reality , it is a non sequitur . Even the typhoon was used by some individuals to draw attention to the Chinese threat .
This has certainly increased attention to the proposed missile defense system for Guam . As currently planned , this includes 20 separate sites to include missile batteries as well as radar sites and ancillary activities .
There is a fair amount of confusion about what exactly is being contemplated . We are unsure whether the system works .
The 2023 National Defense Authorization Act required
an independent study on the viability of the system . There is a fair amount of skepticism even within the Pentagon about the effectiveness of this “ enhanced integrated system .”
The U . S . Senate ’ s version of NDAA recently included a “ briefing on the potential for using modular microreactors in Guam .” The introduction of landbased nuclear energy into the island will certainly attract attention . This possibility has been discussed in some defense literature . The Pacific Center for Island Security ( of which I am a member ) alerted local media to this possibility a few weeks ago .
Local officials must openly deal with the confusion and attention surrounding all of this in a way that puts forward the best questions that require answers . It is the responsibility of the governor , the legislature and the congressional delegate to seek clarity . They are not required to advocate for or against the missile defense system or the military build-up as a concept . Their advocacy has to be devoted to putting information in the hands of the public . In this regard , they need to hold the Department of Defense ’ s feet to the fire . They have to be transparent and direct in their questioning and revealing the plans to the public .
As residents of this island , we are being asked to shoulder the burden of being a first-strike community . Other islands , such as the Northern Marianas , Palau or the Federated States of Micronesia , are designated as divert airfields and ports . Their role is to be the recovery point from the first strike and potential destruction of Guahan .
If we are being asked to be the firststrike community , our leaders have to demand an explanation about what this means . In a public conversation , defense planners need to clarify what is being required . The notion that these are classified matters is nonsensical . Classify the information on the movement of particular military assets and classify the information on weapons systems . But you don ’ t classify the nature of the potential destruction of the island .
We are being asked to comment on missile defense in a series of “ scoping meetings .” If we are not armed with accurate and timely information about what the military has already scoped out in terms of land and requirements , then we are participating in those meetings just as part of a checklist which the military is required to fulfill before they build anything .
At the congressional level , there are some interesting initiatives . The movement of the Compacts of Free Association has to be completed in an unfriendly environment for spending . The proposed new economic packages under the compacts with Palau , the FSM and the Marshall Islands will cost the United States $ 7 billion over the next 20 years . Helping island nations , even the ones that the U . S . has an obligation to assist , is not high on the Republican agenda . Stoking fear of China as a rationale for assisting our island neighbors makes more sense .
By Robert A Underwood
The House Committee on Natural Resources has established an Indo-Pacific Task Force co-chaired by territorial delegates Rep . Amata Radewagen ( Republican ) of American Samoa , and Rep . Gregorio Sablan ( Democrat ) of the Northern Marianas . Guam ’ s delegate , Rep . Jim Moylan , is a member of the task force .
The first meeting in mid-June featured witnesses who emphasized that countering the Chinese threat was the main basis for helping the islands . The task force may hold another hearing in July and is slated to come to Guahan and the region in August .
At a broader regional level , Sen . John Kennedy , a Republican from Louisiana , sponsored S . 1220 , titled “ The U . S . and Pacific Islands Forum Partnership Act .” The legislation would authorize a U . S . envoy to the Pacific Island Forum . This is part of the growing attention to the Pacific , which is fueled by concerns over Chinese initiatives .
The United States has now discovered the PIF . I don ’ t know whether the sudden attention is welcomed by the PIF membership . Pacific islanders are ordinarily polite and may welcome the attention , especially if it is attached to funding of certain projects , most notably dealing with climate change .
Ordinarily , only independent nations can be members of PIF . Freely associated states are included , including the Cook Islands , whose free association with New Zealand is more entwined than those of the Micronesian entities .
The French territories are allowed to join , raising the question as to whether U . S . territories will be encouraged or discouraged from seeking membership . Who will support or oppose the inclusion of Guahan remains to be seen .
Gov . Lou Leon Guerrero earlier discussed the possibility of seeking PIF membership , but several observers viewed the announcement with suspicions . They saw a Trojan Horse for the U . S .
We are constantly told that we are the tip of the spear . In reality , we are the first strike community , which is trying to make sense of a confusing and , sometimes , unfriendly world .
Dr . Robert Underwood is the former president of the University of Guam and a former member of the U . S . House of Representatives . Send feedback to anacletus2010 @ gmail . com .
The opinions expressed here are solely the author ' s and do not reflect the editorial position of the Pacific Island Times .
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